Can’t see Tsipras being that popular with the masses.

I think that the “masses” will see that Tsipras, and their country, were simply totally fecked by the EU. Let that be a lesson when we vote in our own referendum.

I’m struggling to see what Tsipras and Syriza stand for, if they say for months they won’t and then cave in so badly at the end. Bizarre they could have done all this ages ago, probably at less onerous terms.

Rumour is that $80 billion isn’t enough and it’s more like $100 billion they need, so a what chances on Greece coming back looking for more before Christmas?

Two fingers? No, Greece has got fisted by the EU. It’s an awful thing to watch happening. Where’s a parliament storming mob when you need one?

No, Greece has got fisted by the EU.

The Greeks have screwed themselves :

Poll: 7 in 10 Greeks Want the Euro at Any Cost

Which is precisely why they are where they are today. Fear of life outside the Eurozone/EU overrides everything else.

We should offer them a swap – they can have this rainy shit hole and 100bazillionclagnuts or whatever and we can all go and live in the sunshine.

They’ve been well and truly shafted though and it’s only going to get worse, thy’re about to give away any chance they have of a recovery and any future source of state value creation. They may have made their bed and they do indeed have to lie in it but it was a bit unnecessary for everyone else to do a poo in it.

dragon – Member

Bizarre they could have done all this ages ago, probably at less onerous terms.

Not bizarre, they just thought the troika might do the right thing. More fool them maybe but it shouldn’t be such a crazy idea. Instead we have what looks like a disaster for everyone- no solution for greece, no sustainability for debtors, and an openly undemocratic result in the heart of europe.

The Greeks have screwed themselves

+1

Not bizarre, they just thought the troika might do the right thing.

Well on that I disagree, if you want to start negotiating don’t start by p*ssing everyone off, continue doing so and then realise at the last you never had any power and eat humble pie by accepting awful terms. Syriza played it very badly from day 1.

They may have made their bed and they do indeed have to lie in it but it was a bit unnecessary for everyone else to do a poo in it.

Stabiliser – could I just congratulate you on your marvelous analogy. Had a bit of a snorting coffee/keyboard interface there 😆

The Greeks have screwed themselves :

Poll: 7 in 10 Greeks Want the Euro at Any Cost

Well, yes, in that sense, but given the problems in creating a new currency (see here http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/11/behind-germanys-refusal-to-grant-greece-debt-relief-op-ed-in-the-guardian/ ) their room for manoeuvre was limited.

“To exit, we would have to create a new currency from scratch. In occupied Iraq, the introduction of new paper money took almost a year, 20 or so Boeing 747s, the mobilisation of the US military’s might, three printing firms and hundreds of trucks. In the absence of such support, Grexit would be the equivalent of announcing a large devaluation more than 18 months in advance: a recipe for liquidating all Greek capital stock and transferring it abroad by any means available.”

Syriza played it very badly from day 1

Maybe, maybe not, but the end result was decided a long time before Syriza appeared on the scene.

Dr Schäuble’s Plan for Europe: Do Europeans approve? – Article to appear in Die Zeit on Thursday 16th July 2015

we have what looks like a disaster for everyone

The winners are those who support the integrity of the EU and failed Eurozone experiment. Fear has triumphed and the power of wholly undemocratic institutions and financiers remains unchallenged. The risk of political contagion has been neutralized and the brief bolshie strop by the Greeks ultimately proved to be nothing more than a damp squib.

The power of bankers remains undiminished, whatever the economic consequences are ……. that’s, relatively speaking, not very important.

Not often (if ever) I agee with Nigel Farage, but he’s on Five Live pointing out the glaringly bleeding obvious….

“Greece can never funcion in the economic straight-jacket of the Euro, pegged to the German economy. Its simply never going to work!”

No shit sherlock!

Not often (if ever) I agee with Nigel Farage

Scary, isn’t it? I will be voting NO despite him.

Scary, isn’t it?

Not in the least. As binners points out he was “pointing out the glaringly bleeding obvious”.

If Farage decides to announce that the sky is blue it really won’t worry me, his opinions about anything are completely irrelevant to me.

Blimey. The more detail coming out, the more it looks like Greece has just been bent over while ‘The Troika’ goes in dry. They are now officially Germany’s bitch. They’ve effectively just signed over pretty much everythign they own.

Looks like a proper Baliffs-walking-out-carrying-the-telly job 😯

As the reality sinks in, how long before a resumtion of this….

Considering that the UK isn’t actually planning to move to the Euro then what is happening to the Greeks really isn’t that significant to the debate.

Although as THM has already pointed out the vote on the EU is currently so vague we don’t know what exactly will be voting for. Factor in the USA putting pressure on the UK to stay in the EU and who knows.

There a few winners here other than common sense. Cue, the little boy pointing out a lack of clothes.

Desperate to watch. There is only one truism. €Z countries have not converged sufficiently to allow for a common currency without full fiscal union and other shock absorbers to deal with the lack of FX flexibility.

All blindingly obvious, but the € elite continue to try to hoodwink everyone else.

The referendum was always a ruse (sadly)

The best that can be said (and this is clutching at straws) is that this ultimately will be a back door fiscal transfer. It’s bloody obvious that the deal as proposed will fail in time, but there will have been a transfer of finds to Greece that will have been hidden from the german population, But this really is trying to find a sliver of sliver lining on a very dark cloud.

Those who lied to us about the euro project should be holding their heads in shame at this, the inevitable denouement.

around 25% of the Greek economy is “grey” – some estimates put the figure a lot higher. If the Greek’s had addressed the systematic tax evasion by their citizens over the last 10 years and put in place reasonable controls on spending they most likely wouldn’t have needed these bail outs in the first place.

Sadly not very long Binners.
@ Dragon you could be wrong a year ago I was strongly pro eu and supported joining the euro , now I am against joining the euro and much less sure about the eu, all because of what has happened to ordinary greeks.

The Greeks have screwed themselves

-1

Unfortunately the Greek people have been shafted all along by their Government, and now it looks like the Greek people are going to be shafted by the rest of Europe.

If you speak to any Greek people the last few years have been very hard as it is with all their money being taken off them in taxes, and now its going to get worse..

Genuinely feel very sorry for Greek people 🙁

Gordi, it was every thus.

An uncompetitive workforce enters a fixed exchange rate. You either need a massive boost in productivity or you get wage deflation and/or unemployment. This is a clear as night and day which (as noted many times before) makes me wonder why left leaning people swallowed the idea. Very odd indeed.

Lessons need to be learned and the pillars of Europe recreated quickly.

Considering that the UK isn’t actually planning to move to the Euro then what is happening to the Greeks really isn’t that significant to the debate.

It’s relevant inasmuchas it is now crystal clear that the leaders of the EU are a bunch of lying sadists. Euro or not, maybe that’s not company we want to keep.

around 25% of the Greek economy is “grey” – some estimates put the figure a lot higher. If the Greek’s had addressed the systematic tax evasion by their citizens over the last 10 years and put in place reasonable controls on spending they most likely wouldn’t have needed these bail outs in the first place.

Blah blah blah.

That is not really the point now – what should be decided is the best way forward. If you really insist on digging over the bones it might be worth looking into how this aversion to tax has arisen (if, indeed, it has – the figures are not clear). Of course if you are a racist then it can just be put down to “lazy, corrupt Greeks”.

It matters hugely to us – Europe needs to redefine itself. The status quo is bust. We cannot vote on something if we do not know what it is we are voting on – that was last week’s story!

Who is the first to resign in Greece? Anyone yet?

Brussels has just announced that with immediate effect. Any new Euro notes must be printed on Greece proof paper!

That is not really the point now – what should be decided is the best way forward. If you really insist on digging over the bones it might be worth looking into how this aversion to tax has arisen (if, indeed, it has – the figures are not clear). Of course if you are a racist then it can just be put down to “lazy, corrupt Greeks”.

Surely it is the point? As if they aren’t prepared to pay taxes how the hell are they ever going to get out of this? As even if the debt was zeroed they would be back in the same position in another decade, cap in hand asking for yet more free money.

@richc – add yourself to the list, with jambalaya, of people I can’t be bothered to discuss this subject with. There are lots of articles about this subject out there now, with background on Greek history and economics, and even some studies of how much tax is or isn’t paid in Greece. Read the or not, as you wish.

Considering that the UK isn’t actually planning to move to the Euro then what is happening to the Greeks really isn’t that significant to the debate.

Well.. it is. The usual suspects in Brussells have demonstrated once again they’re not prepared to let trivial stuff like actual evidence trouble their grand, doomed, idealogical project.

They’re intransigence and total inflexibility in the face of the blindingly obvious is about to see them sacrifice a whole countries economy, just so they don’t have to admit that they were wrong, and their stupid, fatally flawed, dogmatic currency project is totally unworkable.

As Dr J said … maybe that’s not company we want to keep.

Are these lot actually aware that next year Dave has got to try and win a vote on whether to stay in the EU? I wonder what they think that them all carrying on like unelected tinpot dictators looks like from here? Issuing their dictats to protect the interests of bankers? And sod the very real consequences to loads of people who are at the end of the day European citizens. And we thought Westminster looked remote and uncaring?

Surely it is the point? As if they aren’t prepared to pay taxes how the hell are they ever going to get out of this

Because it has precisely nothing to do with Tax take or Grey economy.

Greece collects 1-2% less than we do on tax, (about 34% of GDP, to our 35.5%) and yet no-one is seriously suggesting that the UK isn’t efficient at collecting tax. Grey economy is another one, Bulgaria, Romania and Italy have a larger grey economy, our is 12% for goodness sake.

Greece was bust in 2010, the reason it wasn’t sorted out was that the Govt of Germany and France were unwilling to have to tell their electorate that once again, even after 2008, their banks had got themselves in trouble, and they (the voters) would have to foot the bill again . So, instead of restructuring the debt and rearranging the Greek economy, they decided to pretend Greece was solvent, and just lend it more money.

This has always been about screwing the greeks, to protect German and French voters from having to pay for what their banks have done.

Remember: Profit is for Private, Debt is for the Public.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11734869/Greece-must-rediscover-the-spirit-of-Marathon-to-burst-its-euro-shackles.html

Apologies for this coming from the torygraph but this article by Boris (yes I know) is interesting and reflective of comments by some on here.

nickc has it

Europe converted Greece’s debt from paper held privately – mainly by French and German banks to public debt held by the ECB, bailing out the bankers and shafting the Greek population.

The imposed austerity had seen the Greek economy contract by 25% in the last 5 years.

And the solution?

More of the same…

The celebrations in Athens after the referendum look even more bizarre now….

The debates in the FT are amusing. Particularly liked the discussions re the definition of hubris

“Extreme pride or self-confidence. When it offends the gods of Ancient Greece, it is usually punished.”

So outside of the SNP (and even they are changeable on the subject) which UK party has proposed the UK join the Euro?

Greece collects 1-2% less than we do on tax, (about 34% of GDP, to our 35.5%) and yet no-one is seriously suggesting that the UK isn’t efficient at collecting tax. Grey economy is another one, Bulgaria, Romania and Italy have a larger grey economy, our is 12% for goodness sake.

I don’t think that’s true. I think our taxation is ~ 39% of our GDP compared to 30% of Greece.

The kicker is Greece has 250% more self employed professionals, which are paying little or zero tax.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/greeces-former-tax-collection-chief-harry-theoharis-explains-tax-evasion-problem-2015-7

So outside of the SNP (and even they are changeable on the subject) which UK party has proposed the UK join the Euro?

Blair was keen. Before Gordon (thank god!) told him that it was him that did the sums, and the money stuff, and that definitely wasn’t happening. He stuck to starting wars and stuff after that instead.

Since then, seeing as Brussells is about as popular as a fart in a lift in this country, poiticians realised that suggesting the economic suicide of the Euro would also mean political suicide for themselves.

Imagine just how ****ed we’d be now if we’d have been in the Euro straightjacket since 2008. It doesn’t bear thinking about!

Some reading –

Neo-liberal game conditions for the euro, financial alchemists who speculated against Greece and enforced austerity: how Greece was made a scapegoat.

Many people think Greece should have never been allowed to join the EMU in the first place given that it was too underdeveloped and relied on devaluations. The assertion is not quite true. There were fixed exchange rates between 1950 and 1971; and although Greece was in much greater arrears [than now], it was steadily closing the gap. However, all this took place under Keynesian and real capitalist conditions (fixed exchange rates, low interest rates, “sleeping” stock exchanges and active economic policies). Hence profit-making was based on actual entrepreneurial activities in the real economy. The euro, on the other hand, was created under the neo-liberal conditions of financial capitalism (a combination of “Let’s have more of the private and less of the state sector” together with “Let’s make our money work for us!”). This has resulted in a fatal contradiction: on the one hand, monetary union has been an anti-neoliberal project (with the aim of finally overcoming currency speculation), but the rules defining its implementation have been purely neo-liberal (the primacy of monetary value over employment; austerity and cuts in social services; financial alchemy).

Stage 1: In 2000 the long-lasting stock market boom (i.e. a bull market) slipped into becoming a bear market and was followed by a recession. The “most neo-liberal” country, Germany, combined fiscal austerity with wage cuts and became mired in stagnation. Southern Europe benefited from the low euro interest rates, and wages and consumption expanded vigorously. Between 2001 and 2007, GDP in Germany rose only by 9.5 percent, while Spain recorded an equivalent figure of 24.1 percent and Greece a remarkable 27.0 percent. Consequently, imbalances in the current account widened: the German surplus was used to finance Southern Europe’s deficits, which in turn stabilised the German economy.

Stage 2: After a triple bull market (stocks, real estate and raw materials), the collapse of Lehman caused a triple bear market, and the simultaneous depreciation of the three main types of assets led to the great crisis. Given its budget and current account deficits, the countries of southern Europe were unable to combat the crisis as vigorously as Germany. What also emerged in autumn 2009 was that the budgeted figures which Greece had reported to the EU were (markedly) incorrect.

Stage 3: The financial alchemists now started to play a new game: the game of speculating and betting on national bankruptcy. Greece was the first target; the interest rate on its bonds started to rise and keep rising. If the President of the ECB or the German Chancellor had declared at the time (in spring 2010) that speculation against a member of the currency union would not be tolerated (just as Draghi did two years later), then we would all have been spared the euro crisis. But, as it was, high interest rates were regarded as a just punishment meted out by the “judges’ market”. And Merkel was keen to capitalise on the anti-Greece sentiment of lazy Greeks fuelled by the “Bild” Zeitung tabloid newspaper: she needed it for her election campaign in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Stage 4: The rise in interest rates forced the euro rescue package in early May 2010. IMF experts believed that Greece could not sustain its debt burden. The latter would have to be restructured and include a partial write-off on the part of the creditor banks. But the political decision decision-makers decide to act in favour of “their” banks: Greece now also needed to run up debts with the IMF. Under the supervision of Finance Minister Lagarde and Chancellor Merkel, ECB President Trichet’s bought Greek Government bonds from the banks, and the result was a superb feat of financial engineering: the German and French banks didn’t have to pay a cent for their reckless lending. Instead, the entire tab was to be paid for by Greece alone.

Stage 5: Consequently, the country was subjected to a form of special austerity treatment [German: einer sparpolitischen Sonderbehandlung unterzogen], the likes of which had never been seen before. A comparison with Portugal and Spain (2015/2008) demonstrates this very well: Greece cut the public sector wage bill by 24 percent; the equivalent figure for Portugal and Spain was 15 percent and 3 percent respectively; social transfers stagnated in Greece but in the other two countries they grew by 12 percent and 34 percent in each case. Total government spending in Greece fell by 12 percent. It rose by 18 percent in Portugal and Spain. The wage bill sank by 27 percent in Greece, but only by 8 percent in the other two countries. The number of the unemployed in Greece rose by 215 percent, in Portugal by 45 percent and in Spain by 98 percent.

Stage 6: The Greeks had sacrificed more than any other people in peacetime. Running on empty, they therefore voted for Syriza with its call for an end to austerity policies. Yet such a change of course back to a socially-minded Europe would require debt relief across the EU and an expansive economic policy to combat unemployment, poverty and debt.

Stage 7: The negotiations in the Eurogroup are pointless – in a religious war it is power (18:1) which counts, not the argument. This is why in their last “generous” offer the “good and decent” countries have put forward precisely the demands (VAT hikes and pension cuts) they know are already unpalatable for Syriza. And that’s how things have turned out. The choice here is either for the Greek people to drive out Syriza, or for us to drive out the Greek people. After all, the election of this party wasn’t quite in keeping with [what] the market [wanted].

Bottom line: Greece has massive structural problems, but they cannot be deemed the cause of the economy shrinking since 2008: it grew above average between 1950 and 2008, even in sub-periods.

Seven brief remarks by way of conclusion:

First: In my 43 years of being an economic researcher, I have never come across such a distillation of blatant lies as in the case of Greece (e.g. the Government have delivered no concepts etc., etc.). Most journalists have simply parroted [not investigated] this point of view.

Second: Austerity policies have challenged and diminished thousands of lives (dying, of course, is what you do outside the glare of publicity). If the rules of the games played by the neoliberal order and the financial capitalist establishment are, on the whole, flawed, then their hangers-on in the universities, think tanks, in the media and in politics are complicit. They, too, must shoulder their burden of responsibility.

Third: So the elites need a scapegoat. Greece is ideal: the Greek state has cheated (true), and is even pretty broken (true), the country is located in the sunny, carefree south and the people there have a dark complexion.

Fourth: If, in other EU countries, so many people were devalued and declassed as they have been in Greece, who would they vote for?

Fifth: Nazi Germany ran up debts in order to murder people; its debts were written off. But there was no money for the victims of the massacres in Greece. Greece ran up debts to live beyond its means; yet nothing can be written off in this regard.

Sixth: Social and Christian-Democratic elites [= CDU/CSU] have forgotten how to think with compassion. We may fight our political opponents “at the top”, but we cannot afford to forget the people “at the bottom” (for example, the millions of Greeks without health insurance).

Seventh: A Europe united on the basis of neo-liberalism is a pipedream. This way of looking at the world is not fit for purpose when it comes to different peoples living together in diversity. If the EU elites go on like this, we national residents shall [only] receive our “social warmth” in our “national communities”.

http://www.profil.at/ausland/stephan-schulmeister-griechenland-weg-in-die-depression-5746226).

Some more reading – bit less heavy …

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33479946

Eurostat tax revenue collection figures

richc

Eurostat figures on tax take. Let me know when you find the figures you’re looking for. (it’s where I got my numbers from)

Well…. That showed the Euro-bullies eh?