changing random parts without propper diagnosis is a surefire way to spend alot of money.
it could be any number of sensors giving a false reading or your glow plugs gone tits up, bad earthing
or if its anything like my dads 08 transit it could just be a randomly occuring electrical short. bloody thing randomly wont start unless bumped, even with a jump it wont turn over – and its not a jammed starter we changed it out.
once you find the coolant sensor , pull the plug out and try and start it with the sensor out of the circuit- if its a bad reading from the sensor it should start when unplugged.
edit , once you get it started in the morning does it then start fine for the rest of the day , ime a dodgy coolant sensor gives more issue when the engines warm and you go to start it.