Would Apple have seen this coming quite a while ago?

It seems that the stream of truly innovative technology has dried up (especially since the demise of Mr Jobs) so the iPhone is no longer necessarily the leader.

Although Android manufacturers basically just copied ideas/features from iOS they could at least do it cheaper. So are people now just moving to Android as it gives basically the same experience for less money? Or have we reached saturation point for iOS?

Predictive Text ??

They seem to release a new phone every six months (it’s probably not as quick as that) but when many people are using 24 month contracts to pay for the phone it’s not a surprise that they aren’t willing to trade up. I suppose there’s only a finite number of people to sell to so a slow down is inevitable.

Although Android manufacturers basically just copied ideas/features from iOS they could at least do it cheaper.

Debatable as a bunch of stuff is coming out on Android ahead of apple these days, wireless charging, nfc, etc. In the end there is a limit to the number who are willing to pay the tax. People seem to keep apple devices for longer so that doesn’t help sales and the competition is in many ways ( by reviews) better, cheaper and more flexible. One phone 2 sizes for all might not be the best marketing – if you don’t like it your wrong marketing too.

Although Android manufacturers basically just copied ideas/features from iOS they could at least do it cheaper

That statement rings pretty hollow.

Much more choice in the market now. You can get the same experience at a fraction of the price making a high spec handset almost disposable

suppose there’s only a finite number of people to sell to so a slow down is inevitable.

This is my thought, too. Ok China has a shit ton of people still to buy a phone but that, along with “must upgrade to latest fad phone” just isn’t sustainable. But who cares about that anyway

Yes they would have known a slow down in sales was inevitable. It’s just a sign that the smartphone market has matured. Happens to all successful mass consumer electronic products.

New users become harder to find as the majority of people that want one have one coupled with the improvements between updates becoming less substantial as the devices get better so the urge for a lot of existing users to update regularly is reduced.

I imagine this has happened with everything from the portable radio through televisions, microwave ovens, CD players, and now it’s the turn of smartphones. It will happen again to whatever the next breakthrough device is too. Given that Apple has gone through this cycle with the iPod already I’d be very surprised if they didn’t know this would happen to the iPhone.

World economy slowing, especially China and Asia. The current phones are very good (I have a 6) and may well not change to a 7 come this Autumn, whereas previously I would change every 2 years. My iPad 1 I kept 4+ years so perhaps we’ll start doing the same with our phones.

I doubt Apple are losing too much sleep as they are the most profitable company in the world, ever.

Apple has gone through this cycle with the iPod already

And the Mac, and arguably the iPad. In fact all their products, which is probably why they’re reportedly looking into other technologies like cars where there’s possibly room to expand.

Despite this Apple are still making a shedload of money from iPhones.

I think the bottle neck is probably the apps and the app-developing industry rather than the phones themselves. The reason to have a smart phone, rather than just a phone-n-text phone is the availability of portable applications. Ever faster and complex phones (adding GPS, accelerometers etc) at each step opened access to new applications that almost immediately became ‘must have’- sat-nav for instance.

The problem is, unless theres a new application somewhere that would add ease and functionality to my day to day life, that uses technology that my phone doesn’t have then I’m under no pressure to upgrade, or chase the best phone tech when I come to replace. People are perhaps likely to look down the price list to the cheapest phone that will support the apps they already use rather than look up the price list to something that will give them something new or give them some future-proofing. Theres no feeling that some game changing portable technology is just around the corner.

As it is my 5 year old iP4 doesn’t deny me access to any applications that I want to use (and is still 100% functional, not a mark on it or a spec of dust inside it, and still runs all day on the original battery) so whenever I replace it I’m not going to be feeling the same anxiety to ‘stay ahead of the curve’ that I had when I bought it and obsolescence doesn’t seem to be the issue it used to be.

I’m sure all the Apple neophytes thought it was going to last forever…

Samsung’s better anyway.

There was a piece about this on the R4 news this morning unfortunately I missed the first part but in the second they said i phones are way to much money for the Chinese market as the average wage is $8K US per annum also after Samsung the next biggest manufacturers of phones are Chinese, the program is probably on catch up by now

@Mr Whoppit – its the worlds most profitable company and if they should cut prices to boost sales Samsung is going to get poleaxed.

Samsung is a company in horrible trouble – apple at least have the top end of the market making most of the profit in the phone industry wherease samsung arent really competing with apple (not in top end numbers sold) and at the bottom end they are being shafted by the chinese copycats

So are people now just moving to Android as it gives basically the same experience for less money? Or have we reached saturation point for iOS?

“Slowdown” doesn’t mean they’ve sold less phones. In fact they sold more than ever last quarter – just that the increase in sales was less than before. The fall in sales is a prediction; it hasn’t actually happened yet.

Can’t be a surprise to them. 500 quid for the cheapest one, and operators moving to longer term contracts to cover the costs. A fairly saturated and competitive market. Not a huge amount of obvious innovation. And Apple don’t seem to be doing as good a job as usual of bloating iOS to make older devices unusable.

And Apple don’t seem to be doing as good a job as usual of bloating iOS to make older devices unusable.

Maybe people have learnt not to upgrade the iQS, I certainly would have turned it off for my wife’s phone if I hadn’t switched to android.

I do like it when people criticise apple for an update that makes their 4 year old phone a bit slower – i just wish I could get updated for my bloody android !

Samsung is a company in horrible trouble

Errrm no, Samsung are absolutely massive, Samsungs phone business is just a small part of the company, they’re involved in everything from Insurance to heavy engineering. Some of the components in iPhones are manufactured by Samsung, notably the SoC is fabricated by Samsung (as well as TSMC).

In terms of Apple iPhone sales decline I think we’ve gone past “peak phone”, the excitement at the idea of having a personal computer in your pocket has waned, low end Android and to some extent Winphone can do everything that the flagship phones can do at not too big a performance penalty. Low/mid end phones are not the egregious PoS they were just a few years ago.

Plus the incredible growth over the last 2 years has been driven largely by China.

A nasty format of ‘new’ product cycles with mature technology and, at best, marginal innovation – no wonder people have stopped playing the game. They’ve even tried the bike industry trick of bringing out different sizes 😆

until there is a leap forward in battery tech, I can’t see it getting much better.

The main problem Apple have is their other products are in decline, lower MacBook sales and lower ipad sales, which leaves them heavily dependent on the iphone for growth which explains why Apple are now looking at India.

These 2 graphs tell you a lot

Yes they would have known a slow down in sales was inevitable. It’s just a sign that the smartphone market has matured. Happens to all successful mass consumer electronic products.

This, it was always inevitable.

The main problem Apple have is their other products are in decline, lower MacBook sales

And apart from the fact that the computers are still a really niche product globally compared to pc etc. The followers are vocal though, the iPhone was probably a saviour of the business. I wonder how much brand loyalty will take them

I think the ipod was the saviour that gave them time for the iphone. The big problem Apple has is how does it get away from iphone dependence? We know from economic theory and the Nokia/Blackberry story that the tide can turn against a product very quickly if something new comes along.

Personally looking at the data then 2015 will turn out to be peak Apple (share price), with sales falling through 2016 into 2017 and beyond.

The followers are vocal though, the iPhone was probably a saviour of the business. I wonder how much brand loyalty will take them

I always thought the the original imac (the jelly coloured ones) was the saviour of the business with the ipod and later the iphone being the things that propelled Apple into global number one megacorp status.

I always though the the original imac was the saviour of the business

I guess the imac kept them going but they are still in a massive minority in laptop and desktop sales. Massive profit & low turnover the iPhone kicked a lot off, especially the 500‰ markup on 32gb of flash memory 😉

but they are still in a massive minority in laptop and desktop sales

Last time I saw figures, they were still massively profitable – with markups of 20%+ on their computer kit rather than the 2 or 3% that dell, hp, etc are making on their kit

Never understood the hate for apple myself

but they are still in a massive minority in laptop and desktop sales

They only ever intend to be a niche player, but they take the lion’s share of the industry profit in which ever market they enter. There is very little money in making non Apple laptops (a few $ profit per laptop in most cases).

Not hate, they have a massive markup on a small market slice. It’s great being able to make lots on small volume but it makes you very vulnerable to small market changes.

Agreed, but they have been called dead a few times recently, will be interesting to see what new area they can go into and revolutionise now that the great leader has departed

Apples RAM prices are a massive p*ss take. How the hell is the ipod nano still only 16GB. I can get a 64GB memory card online for £12.

Thing I don’t understand is, ipod touch has lots of the same functionality – minus the phone and GPS of course, but these bits are not really expensive – and yet sells for a fraction of the price. Is the difference really justified or is it just gouging?

I find a non-apple phone and ipod touch is a pretty good combination, but I’m not a heavy phone user.

Last time I saw figures, they were still massively profitable – with markups of 20%+ on their computer kit rather than the 2 or 3% that dell, hp, etc are making on their kit

Not exactly like for like though, you probably should add Microsoft’s profit onto the overall PC profit.

Be interesting to see how Windows 10 gives PC sales a kick.

The slowdown is in India and China – for the variety of reasons stated above.

In the UK Apple increased smartphone market share to 42.5%, pointing them on their way to hit their target of 50% share. Remember also that loyalty is quoted by Apple at 90% – but their need to protect their brand and its value means that, in my view, this will now become a steady one way street.

Is that what’s happening?

Guess they’ll just move to crippling phones faster with new software, because the carrot of a few extra features on a phone that essentially feels and operates the same for most people isn’t enough to make people upgrade.

Getting fed up with Apple’s attitude these days.

A huge amount of iPhone growth in recent years has been by expanding the markets it’s offered in. Inevitably, there are few new places left to sell iPhones to the (relatively) wealthy. Thus growth slows down.

It’s a maturing market and the likes of Apple are shifting into an era of slower, steadier growth compared to the huge increases of the past.

I guess the imac kept them going but they are still in a massive minority in laptop and desktop sales.

According to Gartners statistics in 2015 Apple took a 7.2% market share in combined desktop, laptop and netbook sales which had them in 5th place globally. True it’s not number one (Lenovo at 19.8%) but that figure doesn’t include iPad sales so taken by itself it’s still a healthy and worthwhile part of the business.

In the UK Apple increased smartphone market share to 42.5%, pointing them on their way to hit their target of 50% share..

http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/smartphone-os-market-share/

In the UK they are certianly dropping away from that 50% (even 40%) over the last few months.

Getting fed up with Apple’s attitude these days.

You do know you don’t have to buy their stuff? If you don’t like it, just buy something else.