But I’m not complaining THM.

“Europe is willing to negotiate haircuts – anything else is a waste of time.”

So the bankers and conservative politicians in Berlin weren’t prepared to throw a lifeline to the previous conservative government in Athens and give them some breathing space, but they will to a motley crew of one-time student revolutionaries ? LOL!

True – first fudge would be another restructuring. There also will be an inevitable haircut although perhaps not as extreme as varoufakis’!!

But the two positions are clearly incompatible and the can now too beaten to be kicked too far.

The history of Asia is that the great shock and awe of devaluation etc is ST and manageable. But it remains off agenda here. European politicos prefer subterfuge instead.

Other way round Ernie, he is the new finance minister. He is giving the G position

Anyway, I misread this earlier.

“Far left” is how the FT describes it BTW
The media can use all sorts of labels to describe political organisations, it doesn’t make them correct…. No “far left” party would take that stance.

Northwind my argument is more solid than granite on this.

DrJ, the banks and other investors would have forced a Greek default as they had no appetite/ability to fund a bailout

Greece has two fundamental choices, continue to stand by the agreement they signed or go bust (ie default, exit euro, massive devaluation). I’ve no doubt they’ll try and come up with a face saving negotiation such as extending the maturity of the debt a bit whilst claiming a great victory but tax payers in Europe won’t pay for a second even more generous bailout.

Let’s judge Syriza on how much extra tax they manage to collect given we all know how much is avoided. I’m not holding my breath. In the meantime expect lots of anti-German rhetoric and a reaction there amongst rank and file taxpayers

Let’s judge Syriza on how much extra tax they manage to collect given we all know how much is avoided.

The issue in Greece is now what capacity people have to pay the new taxes, not what appetite they have for avoiding it, or how efficient the collectors are.

jambalaya – Member

Northwind my argument is more solid than granite on this.

Oh well as long as you say so, while avoiding the counterargument completely, I’m sure you must be right

Its certainly not just Germany thats disgruntled. Going back to Jammy’s Eastern Europe point again. Do you seriously think they’re going to wear Greece being cut yet more economic slack? If Germany and the more developed, nations with comparatively lavish public services, are fed up with Greece, how do you think the relatively poorer nations with the EU are feeling?

They’ve watched enviously the public services, generous pensions etc of Greece, while being unable to afford the same themselves, due to sticking the rules of EU membership. They’ve then been informed that they’re being asked to pay for it, as actually Greece couldn’t afford these things either.

How would you be feeling about that? Its pretty obvious that theres no way on earth that Greece is in a position to renegotiate anything. Because no-one in the EU is prepared to stump up yet again. So that promise to the electorate can’t be delivered on. Never mind whats going to fund these 10,000 new public sector jobs.

So that leaves 2 options. More of the same – which the Greek people look in no mood for – or default, devalue and deal with the aftermath. And them’s your choices, I’m afraid

Greece won’t leave. The deal will be renegotiated – Greece can’t afford to leave & the EU can’t afford to let them.

If they do, then what’s to stop Portugal, Italy, Spain et al all buggering off??

If they do, then what’s to stop Portugal, Italy, Spain et al all buggering off??

The Greek famine and refugee camps should do the trick.*

*Other outcomes are available. None good.

Yes I’m aware he’s the new finance minister THM. You’ve always apparently struggled to understand the point I’m making THM 🙂

They’ve watched enviously the public services, generous pensions etc of Greece, while being unable to afford the same themselves, due to sticking the rules of EU membership.

The Eastern European nations should feel aggrieved yes, but if we’re going to go down the route of punishing the Greek people for the corrupt and criminal actions of their government and the EU politicians who supported their entry, then you could equally say the same about the Eastern Europeans. Buyer beware etc…

Greece has two fundamental choices, continue to stand by the agreement they signed or go bust (ie default, exit euro, massive devaluation).

No they don’t. The first is not open to them. They cannot stand by the agreement and the terms that go with. That is the ONLY solid granite bit. The question is what next….

I’ve no doubt they’ll try and come up with a face saving negotiation such as extending the maturity of the debt a bit

Watch both sides try the same trick.

whilst claiming a great victory but tax payers in Europe won’t pay for a second even more generous bailout.

Which is what the politicians are scared of, but not as much as the end of their folly.

Ernie, true, but not intentional in this case!!

thm, I very much doubt there’ll be any kind of bail out. Again, the question is if Greece get one what’s to stop anybody else asking for one?

It’ll be a renegotiation & both sides will claim victory.

5 will get you ten, they are already gearing up the drachma printing machines, they daren’t admit it or there would be a massive flight of capitol from the country, if in fact there is anyone still there that hasn’t already baled.

Perhaps they should re engage Goldman Sachs, they created the mess in the first place at huge profit, make them sort it out.

🙂

Germany Owes Greece 11 Billion Euros From the Nazi Occupation Loan

http://m.slashdot.org/story/212819

Epic lel.

Northwind, I understand your position/counterargument on this. I simply disagree and in the case of Greece you cannot claim it’s just the elite or corrupt government who have benefited as the “love” has been shared throughout the country.

From Germany today reporting in the Telegrapgh

Finance Minister

We have given exceptional help to Greece. I must say emphatically that German taxpayers have handed over a great deal

Research Institute

Mr Matthes warned that Syriza cannot hope for softer terms from Italy, Spain and France, since the taxpayers of these countries have lent almost as much to Greece per capita as have the Germans. “There is not going to be flexibility in the Eurogroup, nor any coalition of southern states. There is real money at stake,” he said.

Syriza succeeded in selling an illusion that Greece can end the reforms and stop paying the debt, and still stay in the euro. This is impossible. If they do that the European Central Bank cannot accept collateral guaranteed by the Greek government,” he said.

“This will force the Greeks to return to the drachma and that will cause massive disruption. There will a government default, corporate defaults and bank defaults. The financial system will simply break down,

Syriza succeeded in selling an illusion that Greece can end the reforms and stop paying the debt, and still stay in the euro. This is impossible. If they do that the European Central Bank cannot accept collateral guaranteed by the Greek government,” he said.

My point earlier, which refutes your idea of a choice. It’s doesn’t exist.

So singapore the latest one to join the currency wars. When we look back at this period, historians and economists will shake their collective heads in disbelief. Extraordinary times

you cannot claim it’s just the elite or corrupt government who have benefited as the “love” has been shared throughout the country

We’ve covered this, but you’re still seeking to blame the victims. Yes there were benefits across society, but the whole point is that they had no choice in the matter. You think if the govt had come out and said, ‘We can’t afford these loans but we’re taking them out anyway to fund the shortfall in tax revenues because our biggest industries and most well off in society don’t want to pay any tax, and in 10 years time the country will be bankrupt and you’re all going to lose your jobs, your pensions, your healthcare and social security’, that they would have voted for that?

As THM said (and it’s not often we agree), the lender has to take some responsibility and accept that if they make a bad loan to someone who can’t repay it, then they shouldn’t expect to get all their money back. The main difference in this case is that for some bizarre reason the lenders have been allowed to lend them even more money. It’s a poor analogy, but if you or I defaulted on our mortgages, do you think the bank would be saying ‘Don’t worry, we’ll just lend you some more money and it’ll all be ok’?

in the case of Greece you cannot claim it’s just the elite or corrupt government who have benefited as the “love” has been shared throughout the country.

A lot of the “love” has also gone right back to Germany in the form of shady deals for Siemens and other companies in contracts for items that benefitted nobody. Of course that was always the idea behind the “help”.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703636404575352991108208712

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704698004576103481318124252

jambalaya – Member

Northwind, I understand your position/counterargument on this. I simply disagree and in the case of Greece you cannot claim it’s just the elite or corrupt government who have benefited as the “love” has been shared throughout the country.

It’s clear you don’t understand my point at all. Or rather, I suspect that you do but you prefer to misrepresent it, since it’d be astonishing if you’ve misunderstood it to this extent.

My point earlier, which refutes your idea of a choice. It’s doesn’t exist.

Really we are not so far apart which is why I think they should have gone bust in 2009 and exited the euro then. The EU are keen to protect their great project so they bailed out Greece when it should have gone to the wall. Even Syriza know that a default/exit are madness and have said that’s not the mandate the people have given them. Remaining in the euro under the reform programme and financial responsibility agreement (not quite as catchy as “austerity”) is really their only option, we all know they’ll never repay the debt.

@DrJ the amount of money that’s gone back into Germany is tiny relative that which has gone into the pockets of the Greeks. Syriza need to show they can collect taxes from Greeks, why should French, Spanish, Italian and German taxpayers pay the taxes the Greeks won’t ?

@DrJ the amount of money that’s gone back into Germany is tiny relative that which has gone into the pockets of the Greeks.

Well, a billion here, a few billion there – pretty soon you’re talking about real money.

Syriza need to show they can collect taxes from Greeks, why should French, Spanish, Italian and German taxpayers pay the taxes the Greeks won’t ?

The Greeks mostly don’t have anything left to tax, thanks to “austerity”.

What they do have, or have had, is a network of corrupt and incompetent decision makers, and I hope that Syriza have the stomach to root them out.

why should French, Spanish, Italian and German taxpayers pay the taxes the Greeks won’t ?

God you’ll be banging on about Greece maxing out it’s ‘national credit card’ next, and how everyone has a flatscreen telly.

@dazh you describe people who have borrowed too much as victims, there is a reason all our grandparents hated debt, why many religions forbid you to borrow money. Its not a new problem. Financial irresponsibility isn’t new.

Greece has indeed maxed out every single credit card and now doesn’t want to pay. It is that simple.

@DrJ the Greeks have plenty to tax, let’s start with the whole black market economy which is rife from the street seller to the brain surgeon. No doubt at all those untaxed funds are quickly deposited in an offshore bank account

DrJ – Member

Well, a billion here, a few billion there – pretty soon you’re talking about real money.

west wing fan?

Greece didn’t have an economy before austerity in the first place. It was all propped up by EU development loans, which like with much of Southern Europe, went into either speculative projects or the pockets of political cronies.
The people that did want to get on in Southern Europe immigrated.
The truth is there is a major historic economic divide between Northern and Southern Europe – going back to the collapse of the Spanish empire. The EU tried to change that, but hundreds of years of culture cannot be reversed with the click of the fingers.

@dazh you describe people who have borrowed too much as victims

Will you please stop equating the greek people at large with the corrupt and incompetent politicians, financiers and EU officials who fraudulently allowed the Greek govt to enter the Euro and subsequently take out loans it knew it couldn’t repay. The fact that some of this money was spent on social security and filling the black holes from tax avoidance is irrelevant. The Greek people did not take out the loans, they weren’t the main benefactors, and they sure as hell shouldn’t be the ones paying the bills now.

Greece has indeed maxed out every single credit card and now doesn’t want to pay. It is that simple.

It’s that simple if you have a naive and simplistic view of the world where you equate national and international finances with that of an individual family.

No doubt at all those untaxed funds are quickly deposited in an offshore bank account

Any proof for that?

Financial irresponsibility isn’t new.

I think greeces view, and I have some sympathy with it, is the people who were as stupid as lend them it [ max out every credit card] deserve to take some of th epain as well as the greek people. As NW [ and others] point out some of those paying the piper were not even born when this happened and had nothing to do with it yet they must pay it . Basically everyone must pay but those noble risk takers and players of the free market who lent the money 😕
Free market except when it works against them

IMHO the market also needs to take a bite out of their arse so they will be more prudent next time we cannot just keep letting them be risky safe in the knowledge we [ taxpayers somewhere be it Germany /the EU / Greece] will always pays them

Meanwhile in Greecski (little joke there!) the hangover arrives early. Deposits leaving the banks. Yields much higher, banks shares down 20% today. Not pretty…

I hope the greens are watching after their latest nonsense about the UK yesterday!!!!

There is nothing vaguely free market about any of this is – complexity the opposite, false currency, false rates, false growth, false risks, false policies……this is a massively distorted economic and political mess. For one thing, in a free market, creditors would definitely take a hit.

Wasn’t the whole point of the loans to Greece meant to be economic development? That it was meant to go into the economy to make them more like Germany?

Creating a load of highly paid public sector jobs (doing what?) was never going to do this. But, on the other hand, the EU must have seen what they were up to, but they kept the money taps turned on full. Which is just bloody stupid. But then ‘bloody stupid’ is a phase that pops up pretty frequently when referring to the inexplicable la-la-land policies of the Eurozone. WTF did everyone involved in this sorry affair think was going to happen?

@gofaster, its not rocket science is it. You’re a doctor and charge 50% of the bill in cash, what do you do with that given that Greek banks are only held up by EU loans plus the fact that should a miracle occur and the tax man actually come looking its best to have the money where he cannot look. The French minister who spoke out frequently against tax havens under Hollande was a surgeon and he had euro 600,000 stashed in an undeclared account Switzerland, so what worked for him would clearly work for the Greeks. Any smart Greek individual or business would move all their legitimate funds out of the country as if it exists the euro all the banks will go bust and/or enforce conversion into drachma with a massive devaluation. As I posted before 20 billion has left Greek banks over last 3 months.

Greece is in a no-win situation. The EU are not going to significantly renegotiate its loan-package and the conditions of austerity. But if Greece were to leave the EU, international investors wouldn’t touch it with a barge-pole – what is there to invest in other than olives?

JY holders of Greek debt have taken a lot of pain already, the last refinancing left the original holders with big losses, up to 50% I recall. When you extend the maturity of a debt it isn’t “free”, there is a cost. For example some holders would be forced sellers at depressed prices as the longer dated debt was “inelligable” as an investment as a result of being extended.

I would agree that banking (and other) markets needed better regulation. One issue with Greek debt is as it was a eurozone government an EU bank could buy the debt and hold ZERO capital against it. That’s changed now (to some degree). Most UK banks dodged that bullet but the eurozone ones held far too much and they did indeed take material loses AFAI recall (tmh may correct me here)

As I posted before 20 billion has left Greek banks over last 3 months.

Sauce! I want a source, otherwise this is worthless, speculation.

the last refinancing left the original holders with big losses, up to 50% I recall

Only 50%? That’s 50% less than it should be.

the last refinancing left the original holders with big losses, up to 50%

The default did this IIRC – ie Greece did not pay and offered 50 ish % of the debt – but THM will know best on this.

west wing fan?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen

Daz, 100% restructuring is not a restructuring, it’s a default!

2012 average haircut was 75%. Hit local and foreign banks hard – check out Credit Agric 2011 and 2012 losses (over €bin)

Yield bunnies were hovering up Greek debt recently – oops!