Just seen the weather forecast. Apparently its going to hit the continent next week (not good for me) then another forecast says its going to hit England.

Which to believe?!

Meanwhile in Morzine/Les Gets it still pisses it down 🙁

Dunno where it’s, but it’s my fault for arranging a few days camping from the weekend onwards….

Typical… 🙁

Neither or both. Both are within the range of possibilities at the moment.

What decision do you have to make now that can’t be changed later, when more accurate forecasts are possible?

It was underneath my Duvet last night 😀

*PARP*

Meanwhile in Morzine/Les Gets it still pisses it down

Is that news? Only downside is the Apls=Morzine brigade might make it to the nice places next year.

Best info from the horses mouth

Met Office are updating as and when on here….

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

A few Ride London 100 people could be concerned but currently looking more showery than downpour.

We are all doomed. DOOMED I SAY!

I’d go mad just now. I mean when has the Daily Express ever got a weather forecast wrong?

Split the difference; the centre of this decayed ETS will travel along the channel causing an average summer gale and some outbreaks of heavy rain. We won’t die; we are not doomed.

it’s weather, they haven’t got a ****ing clue. IME they can do best guess scenarios for about 24hours after that you may aswell stare into your breakfast bowl to try and glean reliable info.

Bit of surfing rather than riding in the next week then 😀

We won’t die; we are not doomed.

You are Michael Fish and I claim my five pounds 😀

“Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way… well, if you’re watching, don’t worry, there isn’t!”

it’s weather,…

there are lots of different organisations around the world with various probablistic models, which obviously get less accurate the longer into the future they look.

Human meteorologists look at the outcome of these models and make value judgements about which are likely to be more reliable, based on concensus among the models, and which have been more accurate in similar circumstances in the past.

This is the estimated track from WeatherPro HD, showing the core of the storm running well south of the UK.
That’ll probably mean some pretty strong winds and some rain.

[/url] image by CountZero1, on Flickr[/img]

According to the map above it seems to be heading for Morzine !

Well, it’s heading in the general direction of Europe, but as soon as it hits land it’ll lose it’s energy source and die.

No complaints here – I’m in hossegor on a surf trip happy days (Except for when/if it passes over. That’ll be a duvet day)

Only a couple hundred miles?

Currently forecasting 50mm of rain for sunday (pembrokeshire)

Great.
We’re booked on the 4am Dover – Calais ferry on Friday.
Might it be squally…?

I’m in denial

Trying to find a forecast which predicts clear skies over Exmouth in the small hours on Sunday morning

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Exmouth

England isn’t part of “the continent” then?

Great.
We’re booked on the 4am Dover – Calais ferry on Friday.
Might it be squally…?

Just take some seasick pills…

[video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUAUxxafZG4[/video]

Meanwhile in Morzine/Les Gets it still pisses it down

Not this week. Glorious sunshine and dry trails

Heck. I REALLY don’t want to cycle 100 road miles in a downpour. 😡

Interesting its not showing on here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map

Looking at meteoearth it looks like it could be split in two and even dissipate before it gets towards England/France.

All the newspapers/news online seem to think its big/worse etc. funny that.

Heck. I REALLY don’t want to cycle 100 road miles in a downpour.

Given that Sat looks to be nice I do wonder on it it’s really worth missing riding then in exchange for a day in wind’n’rain.

“Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way… well, if you’re watching, don’t worry, there isn’t!”

He was correct.

On that cruise ship- loss of one engine/lower power or stabiliser issue?

He was correct.

Not sure anyone’s learnt anything from that so you might want to elaborate.

Weather forecast for Sunday is looking better and better, Woppit. I am also interested!

12°C, cloudy and 0.2mm or rain between 7 and 1pm. According to yr.no

down from 12.5mm on Tuesday, and 4.5mm yesterday.

Could all go to shit between now and then though!

Might it be squally…?

Could be worse if you were parked up on deck like this..

[video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38jDQkkaxT8[/video]

Not sure anyone’s learnt anything from that so you might want to elaborate.

Hurricanes can’t form in the north’s cold waters as they don’t create the rising air and associated intense low pressure required to create the rotation that defines a hurricane.

From the Met Office website:

Hurricanes are tropical features and generally require sea temperatures much higher than those around the UK, even in the summer. Hence, hurricanes cannot form at our latitudes. However, we are sometimes affected by deep depressions that are the remnants of tropical cyclones. Intense mid-latitude depressions, even those which do not originate from a tropical cyclone can produce winds of a strength equivalent to a tropical cyclone.

The most widely publicised such depression occurred on 16 October 1987, known as The Great Storm. Some gusts were over 100 m.p.h., but this was not the strongest wind recorded over the British Isles. That was on 13 February 1989 when a deep depression passing just to the north of Scotland produced a gust of 142 m.p.h. (123 knots) at Fraserburgh. The reason that The Great Storm of October 1987 gained such publicity was that it occurred in a densely populated area and caused enormous damage to trees.

Force 12 on the Beaufort Scale is described as Hurricane. It’s therefore little wonder that some folk are confused.

Heck. I REALLY don’t want to cycle 100 road miles in a downpour.
Given that Sat looks to be nice I do wonder on it it’s really worth missing riding then in exchange for a day in wind’n’rain.

http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/2014-prudential-ride-london

It’s not looking good.

Heck. I REALLY don’t want to cycle 100 road miles in a downpour.
Given that Sat looks to be nice I do wonder on it it’s really worth missing riding then in exchange for a day in wind’n’rain.

A few hours of discomfort would be less painful that some of the sufferers that rely on the charity I’ve raised money for, so I’m not going to quit on that basis, unless advised as dangerous and the event is cancelled.

Besides, current predictions are 30% chance of a heavy rain shower read that as 70% no chance of a rain shower between 9-12, then 10% thereafter. Besides that, its a max 18mph Southerly wind, which is a nice push home from Leith to Pall Mall, you should be grateful.

a nice push home from Leith to Pall The Mall, you should be grateful.

Crikey I nearly went the wrong way.

We’re booked on the 4am Dover – Calais ferry on Friday.

We are on the 7.30 and heading for Brittany! Will throw you a lifebelt as we pass if you can survive 3 1/2 hours in a raging sea.Be sure to identify yourself I don’t want to waste my time rescuing anyone who doesn’t like bikes!