Qdd that Starmer is still preparing/arguing for Brexit then isn’t it?

Mere semantics between the two major parties re transition even after the major (sic) labour policy whisper. The clue is in the name – TRANSITION – we won’t be ready by 3/19 that’s clear. So we will have.a transition based largely if not completely on the status quo – Tories or Labour in charge. If remainers think Labour are in any way a saviour they will be disappointed again. Like the Tories they believe in respecting democratic processes rather than dismissing people (and their voters) as “basically scum.”

THM – agree we won’t be ready by 3/19. Transition of course is a wonderful word full of meanings.

They (for clarity, they means anyone who says “we’ve had a vote, it’s all settled and we can’t change now”) aren’t respecting democracy though are they? They are basically respecting Mugabe-ism. And yes, I’m suggesting your view is essentially anti-democratic.

And of course the basically scum comment was just to get a rise. 😉 Well done.

You obviously had a very enjoyable bank holiday. Hope you have some alka seltzer ready for the morning.

Given the clear fudges and softening of red lines already, we can assume that your comments about “we can’t change now” are to be taken in the same vein as “scum”. Untrue but there merely to get a rise – there is a word for that 😉

Mugabe-ism 😀 here’s another useful antidote for your current problems:

http://www.gooutdoors.co.uk/climbing/chalk-and-chalk-bags

jambalaya – Member
As reported elsewhere the UK side will give a presentation of what they see as our LEGAL obligations with respect to payments. It’s always been our position that’s what we will pay netted off against their LEGAL obligations to us. Barnier is asking for a “position paper” on the “Brexit Bill” but we have been clear from the start, legal obligations only and no payment talks until trade discussions start.

It will make some good trade negotiation lecture notes in the future. UK not in position to dictate tries to dictate…
If the UK flounces and refuses to pay any of it’s obligations (lets let an independant legal body decide shall we rather than the UK continue in the patronising Brit on holiday method of speaking slower and a bit louder) then the trade deal will be worse. The EU wants to very sensibly cover these topics in order. It would appear (to the cynical among us) that the UK team know we are on the hook for payments, know legally we owe for little things like the pensions liabilities of people we employed etc. and other treaty obligations but plan not to pay. It makes perfect sense to save that little nugget till the end of the process whereas to admit it now would leave the negotiating team at the mercy of the little Englanders who have over simplified this.

Flip it around if another country left what would the UK be demanding?

If remainers think Labour are in any way a saviour they will be disappointed again. Like the Tories they believe in respecting democratic processes rather than dismissing people (and their voters) as “basically scum.”

We will see how people decide to vote
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2050094
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/year-of-next-general-election
There is a very very high chance of a GE before the deal is done. If DD et al have signed on for a massive divorce payment, very long transition, less rights and more crap what will the backlash be? Would you vote for a party that proposes to return to the UK then or insist that bed was made (of shit and rusty nails) therefore must lie in it?

All the EU is doing is trying to back the UK into a difficult corner. So a different definition of “sensible”. For them, yes. For us, ludicrous. Again, read Varoufakis on how they operate. They don’t negotiate, they dictate.

DD may be lacking in many aspects, but on this he is spot on. We should reject their sequencing and insist on focusing on “what will trade look like” from the start. That is what really matters for both sides. Without their sequencing nonsense – everyone knows there is no off the shelf solution to Ireland so clear by insisting on this, what they are doing. Don’t be fooled, don’t be bullied.

Stand up to the EU and yes make them think that we really are stupid enough to go for a hard Brexshit. It will scare the living dailights out of them, because they know that is a loser for them too. Only when they know that we won’t be bullied, will the proper negotiations begin. They are not used to people not rolling over….this will be a first if we stop all the BS that merely undermines our position.

Ludicrous to suggest that the UK is planning not to pay. Just read any of the parliamentary briefings

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7886

Etc

Like everything else, this is a negotiation not a roll over and be rogered issue. Isn’t that what is taugh in negotiation lectures?

Standing up could work… or it could blow up. Who has more to loose? It’s the UK.
On the other question though come 2019, there is a GE and one party see’s the problems and says we will cancel the process and remain in the EU. Would you vote for them? Would it be democratic?

Do you think the UK knows it is on the hook for payments but plans to abandon them – which would lead to a much worse trade deal?

One part of this negotiation is a simple legal procedural part, should be simple to sort out. The UK would be standing very firm if another country was trying to get out of it’s obligations.

Both sides have lots to lose – remember “the project” is at risk here, which is why the EU MUST play hard ball. Remember when it comes to the EU and the project, politics > economics in the thinking.

They are being sensible, we are being foolish by presenting such a divided front. That is the biggest risk of all.

They have to look into our eyes and realise that there is no doubt that we would walk away. Only then, will they negotiate. Any sign of weakness and they will dictate – that’s what they do. Look at the crass (real) austerity they imposed in debtor nations while,ignoring the creditors’ responsibilities. That was pure bullying and economic illiterate at the same time. Look at the economic vandalism that they wrought in the periphery countries.

We just had one election where one party made a stand. The results are known and clear. The “we respect Brexshit parties” did much better.

You can read anywhere – the uk understands that is has obligations. The negotiation is only on where they begin and end. That is sensible and should be supported not lambasted. Plus we should not be settling that first anyway. That is crass negotiation.

Missing the question again…
If you had a vote in 2019 GE or otherwise that endorsed an end to the stupidity back to the EU which way would you vote? (I know it’s not in your style THM but perhaps just answer that one short and direct question with a Remain or Leave)

Seems entirely sensible to deal with the simple divorce/obligation part unless you have a bunch of swival eyed loon supporters denying the UK needs to pay for anything to appease. It may be in the tory parties best interests but it may not be in the best interest of any negotiation. Which we all need reminding needs a majority vote from the EU to be approved and we know how unpredicatble those are. The EU can dump a hard brexit on the UK too.

It also looks like Brexit is pushing the EU closer together rather than further apart so maybe the project is stronger without the UK.

It also looks like Brexit is pushing the EU closer together rather than further apart so maybe the project is stronger without the UK

😯 for a moment, I thought you might be making a serious point there. Does the Aussie press not cover European news?

I made my view on the whole issue right at the start. There is no sense in having a referendum on membership of the EU until we know what the EU is going to look like, The status quo is unsustainable – that is obvious – we should only be voting on the next version. Until then this is simply an expensive form of “political masturbation” 😉

The party who stands up and shows it understands this would get my vote,

Plane boarding now – thank for the company!!

So true to form unable to answer a direct question.

‘toon of the day. well at least we get a giggle from our kids’ futures being blighted, eh? (from https://twitter.com/democrats_uk/status/902118535144595456)

You obviously had a very enjoyable bank holiday. Hope you have some alka seltzer ready for the morning.

Excellent actually. Not really drinking though so alka seltzer not necessary. Few mozzy bites though so I might get some bite cream.

Untrue but there merely to get a rise – there is a word for that

Agreed – and according to you the last word for that was Jamba – I of course wouldn’t dream of commenting.

Hope the flight was enjoyable – anywhere interesting?

PS – THM I’ve reread your posts and I think what you’re saying is we have to be able to claim we’ve left for it to be democratic – doesn’t matter what the deal underneath that is. However if the same trading arrangements, movement arrangements, payments are made, but without the we’ve left wrapper that’s undemocratic.
In essence you are saying the UK and EU could agree a deal that is identical to the deal we have now (ok reality says we can’t, but if we could) and provided the idiots in government stood up and said we’ve left, this is a bespoke red white and blue Brexit deal, then that’s democratic.
Hmmm. And I thought I was occasionally dismissive of the Brexies.

I agree with you Mike, the EU looks stronger post Brexit than before from where I’m sitting. Even Le Pen realised that and had to back pedal on Frexit. It’s also given our politicians a wake up call and they’re dealing with some of the unfairness percieved by the populace – see Macron’s effort to get travailleurs détachés down to one year.

go for a hard Brexshit. It will scare the living dailights out of them,

People are so scared they’re tittering behind your backs. You see Europe really doesn’t have a lot to lose and countires are already realising they have a lot to gain. I’m hoping for a Brexit hard enough to finish the City as Europe’s main trading platform. Yoou know haow many British products there are on the Shelves in Lidl and Leclerc where I do my shopping? Now go check out your local Lidl and Tesco.

There is no sense in having a referendum on membership of the EU until we know what the EU is going to look like

In not sure that makes sense, being part of any trading or cooperative bloc is always a gamble on what the future holds, three EU & the world is a dynamic place.
Either we are part of the EU contributing to the group or we are outside it.

That we’ve been electing kipper clowns to be our representatives at the EU obviously didn’t help our efforts.

But then Johnson & the right wing press have been pumping out The bendy banana bollox for so long now that it’s not that surprising

This is hardly a vote of confidence from The Sunday Times, a paper which I presume is Leave.

love the toons more please!

Well they still get a pop at Corbs the Commie in there just in case some don’t want to look at the real joke

Edukator – Reformed Troll

I agree with you Mike, the EU looks stronger post Brexit than before from where I’m sitting. Even Le Pen

Didn’t Macron just say that Poland was isolating itself in the EU?
Shortly after the President of the European council said there was a question mark over Poland’s European future?
And didn’t the EU threaten to suspend Poland’s voting rights?
Doesn’t the unwillingness of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to ease the burden of migrant relocation from Italy and Greece speak of a disharmony in the EU?
Or is it just that you will post any anti-UK bolleaux? 😕

I’m hoping for a Brexit hard enough to finish the City as Europe’s main trading platform.

Where does your hatred of the UK stem from?
Did Britannia herself abuse you as a child or something? 😯

even in Poland the popularity of the EU has increased according this recent poll of Poles 😉

http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/15/post-brexit-europeans-more-favorable-toward-eu/

there has also been a series of predicted populist victories in france, holland etc that didnt materialise either, many brexiters predicted the collapse of the EU post brexit (sums up the arrogance of it all tbh), its nice to see them being proved wrong.

there has always been disunity within the EU, but its not killed it yet!

nicked from the times via the guardian…

In the meantime, here is an extract from Rachel Sylvester’s column in the Times today (paywall). It’s five-star hatchet job on Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, who is “rapidly becoming a national embarrassment”, Sylvester says.

Boris Johnson is becoming the Where’s Wally? of international diplomacy. All over the world the geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting yet at this time of huge global significance the foreign secretary is all but invisible on the international stage. On the nuclear threat posed by North Korea, the crisis over Saudi Arabia and Qatar or the clash between the US and China, he is irrelevant. On Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Turkey and Yemen, he is incoherent. Occasionally he surfaces briefly, like a hostage paraded before the television cameras to prove he is still alive, as he did after a visit to Libya last week, but even then he is ineffective because he has ceded all influence to others.

As the US enters an extraordinary culture war under Donald Trump, Mr Johnson remains morally ambiguous, flip-flopping between dismissing criticisms of the president as a “whinge-o-rama” and claiming he got it “totally wrong” in his response to the recent racial violence in Charlottesville. He made a serious strategic error in aligning himself so quickly with a divisive populist across the Atlantic who no longer even has the support of his own Republican Party.

In this country, Labour has finally joined the argument about the implementation of Brexit, but the foreign secretary is nowhere to be seen in that debate. Having fooled the United Kingdom into voting to leave the European Union, by promising that it would mean an additional £350 million a week for the NHS, he has no realistic idea of what Brexit should entail. He suggests the policy should be to have our cake and eat it and that other EU countries can “go whistle” for UK payments, as if this were some kind of public school game rather than a negotiation on which the future of the nation depends. Again, there is an inability or an unwillingness to think through the long-term consequences of his position …

I’ve just spent a fortnight in America and was shocked by the number of tech entrepreneurs, hedge fund managers and political strategists I met who asked: “Why has your prime minister appointed a fool as foreign secretary?” According to diplomatic sources, even officials at the Trump White House “don’t want to go anywhere near Boris because they think he’s a joke”. If that seems ironic, one minister says: “It’s worse in Europe. There is not a single foreign minister there who takes him seriously. They think he’s a clown who can never resist a gag.”

Where does your hatred of the UK Brexit stem from?

Losing half of my identity.

David Davies and the UK delegation have their time management spot on. Davies was in Brussels for the press confermece and will return for the closing remarks. The rest of the delegation can focus on technical issues and as I posted earlier our presentation to the EU on our LEGAL obligations, financial and otherwise.

In other news this piece on why Soft Brexit is no such thing and is (obviously) financially inferior to exiting the Single Market and the formal Customs Union

The economic benefits of single market membership are grossly exaggerated. Since 2002, the share of UK trade with the EU has fallen from 61% to 43%. The single market barely covers services, in which Britain excels and which account for over three quarters of the UK economy. Politicians can cite slogans about a ‘jobs-first Brexit’, insisting we stay ‘inside the single market’. But if the single market is so beneficial, why does Britain trade less with the EU than with the rest of the world? Why is the UK’s EU trade shrinking as its non-EU trade expands? And why does Britain have a large deficit on EU trade, but a sizeable surplus on trade outside the EU?

Soft Brexit is neither possible nor preferable. The UK needs a Clean Brexit

Brilliantly named website btw – un-herd 🙂

Since 2002, the share of UK trade with the EU has fallen from 61% to 43%.

Isn’t 43% still quite a lot, when a 2% contraction of an economy is a disaster…?

Edukator the French are starting to wake up to the real risks of a Uk outside the customs union and the single market – you will be paying for the additional customs checks and staff and sending 75% of any tariffs collected to the EU – all the pain and just 25% of the gain. That plus the cliff edge of the UK importing it’s food more cheaply where it chosses to do so. Personally we will continue to pay a premium for Fench butter and cheese as we value the qualty but many won’t. As for French cars with a free trade deal with Japan we’ll take Toyota’s all day long including the French built Yaris of course. Renault and Peugot not so much as with a potential 24% price swing vs Japanese cars they’ll look very unattractive

Don’t be daft Molls! Have you not been paying attention to Liam Fox!

Do keep up

The trade we lose with the EU we will get back from New Zealand, whose massive population of sheep are crying out for financial services and British strawberry jam

jambalaya – Member
David Davies and the UK delegation have their time management spot on. Davies was in Brussels for the press confermece and will return for the closing remarks. The rest of the delegation can focus on technical issues and as I posted earlier our presentation to the EU on our LEGAL obligations, financial and otherwise.

I think you source needs to read the latest figures form national statistics on EU and non EU trade, Jamba. The graphs show exports to non-EU and the EU as roughly equal.

Renault own Nissan and Peugeot Opel. 😀

Trying to link sites results in Firefox crashing anyone else having problems ?

So I’ll post the URL till hte glitch is fixed:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/june2017

What free trade deal with Japan is this?

#jambasaidsahaaf

the single market barely covers services

but why would someone write something so stupid?

‘Services’ includes…

Creative industries
Education, health and social work
Financial and business services
Hotels and restaurants
Informal
Public administration and defence
Real estate and renting activities
Tourism
Transport, storage and communication
Wholesale and retail trade

all of which has hugely varrying dependcy on the single market & customs union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom#Service_industries

If he just means Finacial Sevices, then the figure is what 10%?

just more jambafacts & brexie lies imho

@molgrips yes but the trade won’t dissapear and it’s a case of what happens overall as new opportunities olen up elsewhere. Also (IMO) most if not all the services trade will just continue (no tariffs on services) and/or just et rebooked into an EU subsiduary quite possibly with minimal staff movement.

You are quite correct to say a 2% change in gdp is significant but something like 85% of our economic activity is domestic – so a change in eu trade vs uk gdp is (imo) relatively limited

We have been economic to an economic corpse (bloated, corrupt and protectionist EU) and all the positive growth opportunities exist elsewhere

You are quite correct to say a 2% change in gdp is significant but something like 85% of our economic activity is domestic

You don’t think those two things are linked?

Molgrips Japan – the one we will sign quickly after April 2019, the future of cars is hybrid / electric and they dominate. The European obsession wirh diesel has been shown up to be a fraud. We should ditch tariff free trade in cars with Europe and pursue VW etc for substantial compensation as has been paid in the US

It is time to up the ante with the EU

free trade deal with Japan?

The one that the japanese have just said is a secondary priority to the one with the EU?

😳

http://www.cityam.com/268182/eu-japan-trade-deal-means-uks-negotiations

https://www.ft.com/content/0047b3c2-8b1e-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d

Theresa May is set for disappointment on her visit to Tokyo this week after Japanese officials signalled they would not rush into free trade talks with Britain.

The British prime minister, who is hungry for new trade agreements to show the benefits of Brexit, is expected to discuss a UK-Japan version of the deal Tokyo agreed in principle with the EU last month when she meets her Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe.

But Japanese officials say their priority is completing the deal with Brussels, while negotiations with Britain will be difficult until there is clarity about its future relationship with the EU.

European Investment Bank

One area where in principal I agree wirh the EU is over the fact that the UK should withdraw from the EIB. Where I differ is the EU thinks we should remain liable for the (crap) loan portfolio and get our capital back many years from now and have unlimited liability for other euro denominated garbage on and off their balancesheet. My view is get a clean break in 2019 with our £8bn refunded in full on that date and the bank can relocate. Good riddence.

That dastardly EIB investing in areas that our own government neglects?

the bastards!

http://www.eib.org/infocentre/press/releases/all/2017/2017-010-eib-confirms-gbp-5-5-billion-backing-for-investment-across-the-uk-in-2016.htm

@molgrips yes but the trade won’t disappear and it’s a case of what happens overall as new opportunities open up elsewhere.

Aaaaaaah…. the magical land of ‘Elsewhere’. I’m thinking of going there for my holidays. Liam Fox makes it sound absolutely brilliant! Miles better than Rome, or Berlin, or Paris which are all populated by bastards who seek nothing less than the destruction of our glorious and noble island race

Yeah good riddance.

I remember a bunch of olds from the S Wales Valleys whining “yeah the EU invested, but in the wrong things – colleges, we want jobs”.

The kids at college “yeah it’s great, now we have a college we have more chance at a good job”.