Jambas why do you describe a region that is only growing slightly slower than the U.K. and in some cases faster as “couldn’t be much weaker economically”. Your own graph falsifies the idea too.

Kelvin Europe couldn’t be much weaker economically or politically.

Fantasy island. The EU is strong, but only if it sticks together.

Country break down here as well:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Interesting to compare, say, just Spain, and Russia, when thinking about why some people would want Europe to do badly.

another well known Brexy

I voted remain.

However, I didn’t take long to accept the result. I have very little truck with people bleating about lies etc, or it being advisory when a government funded booklet said the result would be abided by.

So, having accepted the result, my view is the government’s rumored approach is the right one. THM wants to try and retain as much we have. I think this is pessimistic, there is no point in hard wiring a worse position than we have now, we should select a path that allows us to try and benefit from leaving. Whether we manage to do this is up to us.

just popped up on twitter feed,

Thank you brexiters!

Think about this one thing, would you manufacturer any sub component that had to pass through multiple customs check with all the associated costs, or would you just walk away?

Good to see Peston’s ego is in tact, “I have learned”, there is an embargoed release to the press tonight of the main themes of the speech – the full details are on Guido Fawkes

However, I didn’t take long to accept the result. I have very little truck with people bleating about lies etc, or it being advisory when a government funded booklet said the result would be abided by.

Er, the Tories who were in government at the time lied, and used government machinery to do so?
The referendum terms were voted on by parliament, the spin in that booklet does not change the law, or remove the responsibility from parliament to consider the actual result, and closeness of, the advisory referendum, and consider what the best way to progress should be.

I think this is pessimistic, there is no point in hard wiring a worse position than we have now, we should select a path that allows us to try and benefit from leaving. Whether we manage to do this is up to us.

Sorry, mate, it isn’t up to you. It isn’t up to us. There will be no chance for you, us, or I to select a path. It is up to our MPs, unless they choose to give us a vote and a say. It also isn’t just up to May and her inner circle, which is why we need MPs to get a grip, and, er, get a grip on the path we will take.

Sterling’s going to take another hammering tomorrow.

I voted remain.

However, I didn’t take long to accept the result. I have very little truck with people bleating about lies etc, or it being advisory when a government funded booklet said the result would be abided by.

Agreed so far

So, having accepted the result, my view is the government’s rumored approach is the right one. THM wants to try and retain as much we have. I think this is pessimistic, there is no point in hard wiring a worse position than we have now, we should select a path that allows us to try and benefit from leaving. Whether we manage to do this is up to us.

Not quite true. We cannot retain what we had. My point there was that Dave/Sir Ivan negotiated a deal that was better than anything we will achieve. But that is history. No point crying over spilled milk.

Where I differ from the government is simple – I am in favour of FoM, so for me the EEA option is plausible. This is not the case with Therasa May. If I am being polite here, I would suggest that she is mistaken but the reality is that I am disgusted by the xenophobia that is behind that idea and the false analysis that tries to pretend that immigration is/was/will be a bad thing. I think that this is truly shameful and have no truck with it.

Of course, the remaining options lie along the spectrum of liberalised trade versus sovereignty. I favour the former so for me the WTO option is the worst of the other three.

However, all said and done, I believe that there will be a compromise. Both sides (nutters aside) know that we are facing a lose:lose scenario and therefore behind the scenes the hard work will be well advanced coming up with a compromise. Theresa will most likely get her bespoke deal as Carolyn Flint conceded today.

So in actual fact I think we agree. Hence I wanted to get on with things and get the compromise delivered ASAP.

Kelvin, the government’s line was clear but not the one that you suggest. We have linked to their documents earlier.

Er, the Tories who were in government at the time lied, and used government machinery to do so?

They wont have lied if they abide by the result. If you are relying on MPs to mount a rear guard action, I am afraid you are going to be disappointed.

There will be no chance for you, us, or I to select a path. It is up to our MPs, unless they choose to give us a vote and a say.

I wasn’t suggesting there was, I was saying it is up to us to try and benefit form the new situation.

@kelvin, the US spends 3.7% GDP (and US GDP is a big number !). The NATO commitment is 2%, pay up or leave seems a resonable stance imho.

@tmh EU is starting to look like Greece, numbers are based upon a falsehood. Greek “bailout” loans are worth 50 cents on the dollar. Hollande is gone, Merkel is teetering and lurching rightwards in an attempt to fend off AfD. There is no real leadership.

Here are some quotes from Theresa’s speech tomorrow, as usual these days sent to the press in advance

“A little over six months ago the British people voted for change,” she will say.

“They voted to shape a brighter future for our country. They voted to leave the European Union and embrace the world.

“And they did so with their eyes open: accepting that the road ahead will be uncertain at time, but believing that it leads towards a brighter future for their children – and their grandchildren too.

“And it is the job of this Government to deliver it. That means more than negotiating our new relationship with the EU. It means taking the opportunity of this great moment of national change to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want to be.

Kelvin, the government’s line was clear but not the one that you suggest. We have linked to their documents earlier.

MP’s voted on a bill for an advisory referendum that did not abdicate their responsibility.

Go and read the bill.

What the “government” of the time said in its expensive propaganda piece (that I ranted about at the time it was produced) is irrelevant, just like any other Tory puff piece that comes through the door. What parliament enacts is what matters.

They wont have lied if they abide by the result. If you are relying on MPs to mount a rear guard action, I am afraid you are going to be disappointed.

I want MPs to do their jobs.

I wasn’t suggesting there was, I was saying it is up to us to try and benefit form the new situation.

Lots of people will benefit form the new situation. Which people though?
And who will lose out? I’d hate to be in UK manufacturing right now.

ask ourselves what kind of country we want to be

Ask ourselves? How about asking the people of the UK? Vote time…

Go and read the government’s literature – the official line was to remain.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

You can’t equate Brexshit with the Tories

I’d hate to be in UK manufacturing right now.

In my circle of acquaintances the divide isn’t between manufacturers and service providers, it is between people who runs their own businesses and people who work for big corporates. The former are much more optimistic than the latter, however I think this has more to do with the type of personality who thrive in the different environments.

the official line was to remain

You think I don’t now that?

The government tried to present an advisory referendum as a binding one, it was not, they tried this slight of hand to help their party unite after the vote, not matter what the outcome. The referendum bill was advisory, that is what parliament voted for, and it should now fulfil its role and consider the result, and how that should shape our future.

From your earlier comments, it is a matter of doubt

Edit. I may have misread your comment. When you said Tories who were in government at the time I thought you were referring to the whole flange. You may have been referring to the Brexshiteers alone. If so I misunderstood, sorry !!

Because I said the government lied?

X post. Hope that’s cleared up!

Nope, the Remain backing Tories at the head of government lied.
That document, that the state paid for, that was a blatant Remain propaganda piece, was full of deceit.
The one particular deceit I was taking about here was suggesting that the referendum was binding.

Why on earth would you think that only Leave backing Tories (other political parties are available) were less than completely honest?

[/quote]I’d hate to be in UK manufacturing right now.

I wouldn’t and many of the people who I know who run manufacturing companies are very optimistic this can work well for them.

I would be more worried that we have naff all in terms of materials or raw materials or people who will have money to buy manufactured goods made here or abroad.

Britain may just become one big country of backyard farmers.

One thing that will be interesting is that if it doesn’t go tits up and does actually work out , who else will leave the EU?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-trade-deal-us-uk-donald-trump-theresa-may-threat-nhs-environment-food-safety-a7529836.html
Indie stating the bleeding obvious again…

This is all working out quite nicely for repaying my mortgage in the UK….. my loan value has dropped 35K (if I pay it back in Australian dollarydoos) since the leave vote.

Keep at it with the negative headlines please

“accepting that the road ahead will be uncertain at time, but believing that it leads towards a brighter future for their children”

Well, in my case apparently a bright future for my child who can no longer live in the same country as her mother. Still, it’s the economy that counts, eh?

I wasn’t suggesting there was, I was saying it is up to us to try and benefit form the new situation.

Mefty – good luck with that. And sorry for suggesting you were a Brexmaniac. You are of course free to change course on a whim and go with the latest bandwagon.
Me, saying strong, still remain. Not moaning about the referendum (I questioned whether referenda were a good idea in a democracy a long time ago, and I think we can see now that they aren’t) – though I am angry that MPs that we pay as representatives are acting as delegates.

Anyone in Bristol West? We voted about 80% remain but Thangam is just checking no one has changed their mind on the vote. A actually a real chance to do something although it is open to abuse

http://www.debbonaire.co.uk/how_should_i_vote_on_article_50

Aaaah, the Today programme, home of all the best Freudian slips.
Anyone else spot Paul Nuttall reassuring the nation that we are at the front of the queue because Trump is an Anglophobe? Smooooth! 8)

Is the Anglo but the slip (this being the UK) or the phobe bit (well ok, that bit almost definitely is – although perhaps in UKIP phobe and phobic are generally regarded as good traits, I don’t know)?
Shall we call it two mistakes in the one word? Impressive.

He’s not going to become the popular entertainer that Farage is, is he.

Inflation still low but up by a third in a month. Welcome to Brexit poundland.

May’s speech:

“It means taking the opportunity of this great moment of national change to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want to be.”

Interesting choice of words that, “ask ourselves” rather than “ask you”. 😕

I’d take issue with “great moment” – “debacle” might be better.

Nothing really wrong with “great” – In the sense that it is just “an extent, amount, or intensity considerably above average” (OED), rather than implying “good”.

But she definitely misspelled “clusterf***” 🙂

A “moment” that has lasted at least 6 months so far though! 😆

#GeologicalTime

I like

Leave voters voted with their eyes open.

Wtf?

@kelvin, the US spends 3.7% GDP (and US GDP is a big number !). The NATO commitment is 2%, pay up or leave seems a resonable stance imho.[/I]

Just because the US spends so much you expect the rest to also? Absolute waste of money, plus also remember that a lot of what is in the US’s “defence” budget sits in other budgets in other countries. e.g. Veterans at $150bn and 350,000 employees. So lets compare Apples with Apples.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Veterans_Affairs

There is no other possibility. The only question is whether we have a worse position or a much worse position – there seems no sense to me in going for the much worse option, simply because the other alternative is worse than what we have now. As THM says, that has gone.

Personally I’d not be at all averse to a Norway style deal – in fact I’d be tempted to suggest there are at least some positives from that, whilst the negatives impacts aren’t all that big.

Just because the US spends so much you expect the rest to also? Absolute waste of money, plus also remember that a lot of what is in the US’s “defence” budget sits in other budgets in other countries. e.g. Veterans at $150bn and 350,000 employees. So lets compare Apples with Apples.

And don’t forget the effective subsidy to industry (eg Boeing) that is included in the US defence budget.

I would like the PM to deal with these points in her upcoming speech, they seem a little at odds with recent statements from her and her ministers. A simple explanation of why they’re no longer true, or why they no longer matter would be nice.