Lmao, so let me get this straight, we charge people to come and work in positions we, as a nation, need filled?

Well there goes the nurses, doctors, engineers, scientists, researchers, teachers…

Is it me or is this morphing into a soft version of Day Zero? Purge the intellectuals!

In other news the Government is considering a levy of £1000 on every EU skilled worker post Brexit, interesting idea.

Bonkers idea

IGM – I was helping a tutee prepare for some interviews yesterday. One of the best sources that I have found – quality of writing/language and info – is

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/72/72.pdf

The pros and cons of the different frameworks are laid out clearly. FWIW, the report downplays the idea of a bespoke Brexshit agreement. I am not sure that they are correct there.

according to jamba and chewy the tories are unassailable right now. if she had any balls ( ha! ) May could decide to put aside the result of the advisory referendum and pay only a minimal price in the the next GE.
i really do wonder what is in all this for them?

What’s in it for them is holding the tory party together, because the brexit wing consists mostly of foaming at the mouth lunatics who wont’ accept anything else, and the remain wing is prepared to make the best of a bad job and also looking forward to the opportunities to never let a crisis go to waste by wiping out employment and environmental laws, human rights and what remains of the welfare state including the NHS.

THM – as a fully signed up champagne socialist, I suspect I disagree with you on many things, but let me pay you the compliment of pointing out that you will be worth disagreeing with when we discuss those topics.

There are a couple of others on here I would extend that compliment to.

Blimey captain, there’s a future job in strategy and communication with your name all over it. The Tories are nowhere near as good at you and defining the strategy with such clarity.

IGM, thank you, the pleasure works both ways!

I like this thread for the simple reason that you have to keep checking facts. Keeping on top of the pros and cons of the likely outcomes is q hard IME, hence my own refresher this week has been useful.

I am often dismissive of governments (!) so am always pleasantly surprised at the quality of work produced by various committees. The HoL paper that I linked was very good IMO. Not least the first two pages which are articulated so clearly. As I said to my tutee, if you can explain this as clearly as the author you will blow them away in the interview !!!

If corbyn had come up with that £1000 levy idea he’d have been laughed at long and hard by the press.

No doubt he will be along with a proposal of £1001.

I like this thread for the simple reason that you have to keep checking facts. Keeping on top of the pros and cons of the likely outcomes is q hard IME, hence my own refresher this week has been useful.

Yes it is not easy is it. Yet you are expecting the average voter to have the ability (technical and intellectual) to work everything out for themselves even if there are official looking billboards/buses/discussions on TV debates that all tell them lies.

It took 5 minutes to google that 35(0) million was a lie

if people were fooled by that, then that is there problem

£1000 fee clarifcation. We already charge that annually for non-Eu citizens so post Brexit it makes sense for that to be lobbied on every non-British skilled worker equally as we won’t be in the EU.

£350m (again)

£363m is the weekly gross contribution to the EU as per the most recent official government annual report (I forget the doc name / page reference)
It is not a fixed figure, it has been generally and steadily rising. It is dependent on a vareity of factors including estimates of the “black market” and relative strength of the UK.
Rebate is not guaranteed (frequent threats to reduce / remove it)

There are something like 30 different official EU estimations of the UK’s net contribution. That strikes me as chaotic and sends a clear signal that it’s a dysfunctional arrangemnet if you cannot even track the money accurately..

The Referendum changed everything on that issue. Quite simple really.

A bit like Scotland then…

sterling has reached a 31 year low against the dollar

brexitastic

There are something like 30 different official EU estimations of the UK’s net contribution. That strikes me as chaotic and sends a clear signal that it’s a dysfunctional arrangemnet if you cannot even track the money accurately..

It would be as logical to argue that the UK govt is dysfunctional if it cannot track its money accurately…

Cougs, the only question that the courts had/have to discuss was the issue over royal prerogative versus Act of Parliament. They were very clear that there role was not to consider Brexshit itself.

But that does not relate to the simple question – the government was very clear in stating that it would implement the decision

Indeed. The courts were deciding whether or not May could take us out of the EU on her own or whether it required an Act of Parliament. It’s been decided – so far at least – that it is the latter.

Ergo, what was written on the leaflet was a statement that the Government don’t legally have the power to fulfil. It’s about as legally binding as the the NHS bus, or Cameron’s promise to see it through whatever the result.

I like this thread for the simple reason that you have to keep checking facts.

TBH, I genuinely thought you were trolling. You seem to be simultaneously against Brexit whilst being keen as mustard for us to actually “get on with it,” which confuses me no end.

Either that or you’re a Tory politician I suppose.

You seem to be simultaneously against Brexit whilst being keen as mustard for us to actually “get on with it,” which confuses me no end.

Simple:

Remain – good
Brexit – bad
Dithering indefinitely – even worse

Indeed. The courts were deciding whether or not May could take us out of the EU on her own or whether it required an Act of Parliament. It’s been decided – so far at least – that it is the latter.

Indeed.

Ergo, what was written on the leaflet was a statement that the Government don’t legally have the power to fulfil. It’s about as legally binding as the the NHS bus, or Cameron’s promise to see it through whatever the result.

Not ergo at all. Simply incorrect factually and with the conclusion

TBH, I genuinely thought you were trolling.

Untrue, just being consistent…see below

You seem to be simultaneously against Brexit whilst being keen as mustard for us to actually “get on with it,” which confuses me no end.

It shouldn’t, its simple. IMO Brexshit is bad for us. But and its an important but, that view is not in the majority. We lost. Fact. We cant change that – we are not Scottish Nats – we have to accept the decision

Either that or you’re a Tory politician I suppose.

No, the next simple fact is that uncertainty is bad for me professionally. “Ergo” I want this period of uncertainty to end ASAP. It is in no one’s interests.

We know that there is a tension between what “we” want and what “we” can have (strictly speaking we should be the leavers/brexshiteers). That’s a known, known. The known, unkown is we do not know what the resolution of this will be. For that we have to get in with negotiations. For that, we need to trigger A50 etc

You see, its not confusing at all. Its very simple.

The only confusing bit is the details – that will take at least two years to figure out. Probably more. “ergo” its time to stop fannying around and time to get on with the hard work and the rest of our lives

Sorry x-post. Mol has it (largely) the first two are IMO, the third isnt.

Lets assume the following are more likley to happen than not based upon the EU curent attitude to the Brits and WTO rules and the reality of establishing trade agreements –
1. Brexit is going to take 5 to 10 years (this allows for a Tory election win) as simply f**king off is a fiscal nightmare.
2. An interim deal will be established (no change to status quo) for the above period.
3. A Norway style agreement reached (pay to play) at year 10
4. Poor people now really poor
5. National debt trebled
6. 10 years of flat line ecomomy (in real terms not OBR bollocks)
7. Talent pool slowly drains
8. Poorly educated unable to re skill
9. Welfare bill – massive
10. Young income tax payers in short supply

10 years of flat line ecomomy (in real terms not OBR bollocks)

😯

THM > that makes sense, thanks for clarifying.

But and its an important but, that view is not in the majority.

… not the majority as represented by those who turned out to the referendum, I’d be bet good money that Leave is in the minority right now (and probably was on the day in actuality).

Either way, it’s academic. What the people want, majority or not, is irrelevant. We don’t elect MPs to do what we tell them (unless we happen to own a newspaper), we elect them to do what’s best for the country.

“The people” don’t understand the intricacies of international politics and global economics, most people’s knowledge of our relationship with the EU they got off the side of a ****ing bus. The single biggest countrywide change most of us are likely to see in our lifetimes and Cameron reduced it to a yes / no question like it was a vote for a Big Brother eviction, the spinless pig-bothering shitwit.

We lost. Fact. We cant change that – we are not Scottish Nats – we have to accept the decision

This is where we’ll have to agree to differ I’m afraid.

“ergo” its time to stop fannying around and time to get on with the hard work and the rest of our lives

If we are to go ahead with this insanity, then I’d agree that we need to “get on with” working out exactly what it is we are and aren’t going to be doing or trying to do, which there doesn’t seem to have been a lot of in the last six months (and really, should’ve been completely planned out before throwing it to the great unwashed). I’d disagree with the notion that should “get on” by rushing through everything without properly thinking about it.

meh the problem is cameron lied

THM > that makes sense,

Indeed 😉

… not the majority as represented by those who turned out to the referendum, I’d be bet good money that Leave is in the minority right now (and probably was on the day in actuality).

we did a bad job then, didnt we?

At the end of the day, the world will still go round. We will have lost X% of GDP over the period (you decide), but it will not be doomsday. Its shit, very shit, but not terminally so.

But the basics are not complicated – its just that our, or should I say the leavers position is logically unsound, unless we, or should I say they, pull of a miracle and achieve a bespoke “red, white and blue Brexshit*” That does make it complicated.

So the delay arguments are based on a false premise and its becoming increasingly apparent that they are driven more by a desire (understandable but unsupportable) to ignore the result

To get on with the tough stuff – the detail – we need to get through the options bit (and an agreement on the transition period). Hence, “stop fannying around”

* as an aside, when I explained the RWB Brexshit to a young tutee he responded what does RWB have to do with the UK!! So Theresa may need to re-think the metaphor for the millenials

Of course the most ridiculous thing of all is having a referendum on membership of something that (by definition and design) cannot continue to exist in its current form

The whole thing is a waste of time, money and energy – Dave’s Folly

Plus 1

When considering ‘delays’ don’t forget that UK still doesn’t have the staff in place to begin negotiations with the EU, never mind the other countries we currently have trade deals and arrangements with as a member of the EU and other European institutions. I know someone who had ambassador rank before returning to the UK to try and help sort this stuff out, and, well this isn’t news to any one, but we really are not ready. Those saying “get on with it” not only have to appreciate that what “it” is hasn’t been worked out yet, but, more importantly, we don’t have the people in place do to the getting on!

Read the HoL report linked to in this thread recently if you need it spelled out… the different possible next steps require different skill sets and people… and we’re not ready for any of the options!

I have, I posted it

The £1000 charge obviously doesn’t make that much sense:

But the suggestion provoked an immediate business backlash which led Downing Street to try to play down the proposal. The prime minister’s spokesman said it was not on the government’s agenda and suggested Goodwill’s remarks had been “misinterpreted” and he had simply highlighted the skills levy for non-EU migrants coming into force in April.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/11/britain-considering-1000-a-year-levy-for-skilled-eu-workers-robert-goodwill

This Brexit stuff is Number 1 tricky

oldmanmtb, you missed 11, the Irish option, when times go bad you go abroad. I wouldn’t be surprised that the picture you paint would see large numbers of the brightest emigrate.

I think I’m going to agree with THM here, lets get on with it.

At the moment we are in brexit dreamland, activate article 50 and let the nightmare begin, because what better way of shocking people into the mistake they have made than what awaits us in the next two years?

I don’t expect the most mouth frothing brexiters to change their minds(distorted as they are), they want brexit at all costs, (costs we will be paying for)so why bother trying to reason with them?

We should be moving onto the next phase of fighting them.

A lot depends on whether A50 can be revoked, which seems to be unclear to me. If it can be revoked then sure let’s have 2 years of mayhem and the ability to walk away from it at the end.

TMay et al are going to lose the court case (obviously, its not 1648 or that)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/11/government-brexit-supreme-court-theresa-may-article-50

More fallout worries from brexshit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-38587765

Gina Miller will she be remembered fondly? or in infamy?

depends what you voted ?

forgotten in 12 months

(unless you are a constitutional lawyer)

…cue Kenneth Williams…..

And THM has it again.

Edit: damn you THM. I’ve just found the time to open that HoL document you linked and it’s 87 pages. I don’t have a train ride coming up til next week so I might have to use real time not BR time to read it.

😀

I would suggest reading the v well written summary, Ch1 for the excellent summary of the different frameworks and then the summaries and the final conclusion. The last two bits are q repetitive

No more than an hour there and it’s well written so easy to read

Have a glass of bubbly with it!! 😉

Boarding the Indy Ref 55/45 should have changed everthing for the SNP but they ignored it.

Gina Miller will be remembered by constitutional lawyers and law students. If there is a vote it will be passed easily. All a waste of time and her and our money really. I imagine she’ll write a book

Kimbers did the UK fall apart 31 years ago when the £/$ was last at this level ? Dollar going up as markets quite liking what Trump means for business. I recall the $/£ used to be about 10:1, a ten fold depreciation over the long term doesn’t seem to have hurt us too badly ?