Viewing 40 posts - 281 through 320 (of 1,563 total)
  • Election Campaign
  • Junkyard
    Free Member

    the key to the election is still how many seats swap between the Tory, Labour and Lib Dem in England

    I dont think it is as you are ignoring the fact labour are about to lose 40 ish [ conservative guess] in Scotland

    To argue that wont affect the overall outcome is just wrong.

    The tories could lose more and still have more MPS in total than Labour as they just need to lose less to labour than they lose to the SNP[ ish I accept they start with more anyway]

    kimbers
    Full Member

    Also what’s the feel on Tory seats going Labour or vice versa?

    dunno what the national picture is, but weve just moved house , old constituency brentford and iselworth and new one, milton keynes south are both predicted to go from blue to red

    dazh
    Full Member

    Also what’s the feel on Tory seats going Labour or vice versa?

    I’d be surprised if the tories gain many from labour. Up here in the north I think the best they can hope for is to hold. As JY says though, the bigger question is how many labour lose to the SNP.

    I see Grant Shapps/Michael Green is in the news again. This time supposedly editing the wikipedia pages of himself and cabinet colleagues in a sixth form project style attempt to further his career. You couldn’t make it up really 😀

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    kimbers
    Full Member

    Shapps really is an odd one!

    richmtb
    Full Member

    Grant Shapps must have some amazing dirt on someone, how else do you explain his continued presence in the Tory party upper echelons?

    dragon
    Free Member

    you are ignoring the fact labour are about to lose 40 ish [ conservative guess] in Scotland

    Lets see some real numbers shall we; Labour currently have 41 seats in Scotland (total scottish seats are only 59), and not ever single one will go SNP. A realistic guess is SNP ending up with between 20-30 IMO.

    SNP card is being overplayed, the election will be won and lost in England. But it suits the SNP and Tories in very different ways to talk up the SNP chances.

    allthepies
    Free Member

    Interesting election forecast site.

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    richmtb
    Full Member

    Lets see some real numbers shall we; Labour currently have 41 seats in Scotland (total scottish seats are only 59), and not ever single one will go SNP. A realistic guess is SNP ending up with between 20-30 IMO.

    20-30 Seat for the SNP?

    You are Jim Murphy and I claim my five Scottish quid

    Current polling is 54 seats for the SNP

    On May the 8th I think this will be the likely result

    Scottish Seats General Election Prediction:
    Conservative 1
    Liberal Democrat 2
    Labour 11
    SNP 45

    I’d bet a whole Scottish pound note that my guess will be closer than yours

    chewkw
    Free Member

    Don’t know about you lot but I am taking a day off to watch the election. I am going to have Fish & Chips or local burger with few bottle of beers in preparation of the election result.

    Should be fun … 😆

    Rockape63
    Free Member

    Should be fun … 😆

    FUN!…..FUN you say??? 🙁

    dazh
    Full Member

    Don’t know about you lot but I am taking a day off to watch the election.

    I usually stay up long enough til there’s some confidence in the result. about 3am usually. Might need an all-nighter this time though so dunno what I’ll do. Taking a day off isn’t an option as I refuse to lose a day’s holiday for something so pointless.

    chewkw
    Free Member

    Rockape63 – Member

    Should be fun …

    FUN!…..FUN you say??? [/quote]

    :mrgreen: Yes. Fun. I mean how much worst can you get or shall I say how hard can it be?

    dazh – Member
    I usually stay up long enough til there’s some confidence in the result. about 3am usually. Might need an all-nighter this time though so dunno what I’ll do. Taking a day off isn’t an option as I refuse to lose a day’s holiday for something so pointless.

    I think you might need to stay up until 4pm to have some clear idea of the next person in power … 😆

    dragon
    Free Member

    I don’t buy this website http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

    They’ve used some funny analysis to come up with virtually a total SNP Scotland, as they’ve used the 2011 Scotland Parliament vote as a guide, but
    (1) the constituencies don’t map properly and
    (2) people in general elections tend to vote more conservatively and favour the main parties.
    (3) Not all the constituencies were polled as part of their analysis so they are just guessing with those.

    Northwind
    Full Member

    dragon – Member

    SNP card is being overplayed, the election will be won and lost in England

    More precisely, the election will probably be lost in England. Then the losers will get to argue over who forms a government and that part may well be won in Scotland.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    the SNP card is defo being overplayed , its the only effective stick the torys have found to beat milliband with

    I see the shappster has taken the only route he could and threatened to sue everyone repeating these terrible smears about him,

    Junkyard
    Free Member

    It has been a few years since we have seen a high ranking Tory sue for libel and end up doing a stretch as an outcome of this.

    dazh
    Full Member

    its the only effective stick the torys have found to beat milliband with

    And a very easy one for labour to neutralise by removing the ambiguity around any informal deals. At least it would have been a week ago. Now it would look like they’re backtracking. Is it just me though or have things gone off the boil? Even the guardian has relegated the election coverage down the front page on their website. Maybe everyone’s just bored?

    scotroutes
    Full Member

    richmtb – Member
    SNP 45

    Oh teh ironing! 😆

    teamhurtmore
    Free Member

    Bored and depressed. At a difficult time, we will have a messy coalition promising fluff but needing to act more decisively that the Tories (especially if growth stalls).

    I see Cleggy going for the public sector vote this morning with (unconditional?) pay rises. Great idea Nick…..

    How did Schapps get his job – not only does he look like and adolescent but he acts like one too, relying on stat-fests

    Stephens take on the anti SNP tactics in today’s FT is a good read.

    Northwind
    Full Member

    I was just thinking it’s weird how obsessed this election seems to have become with ruling things out. Everyone’s supposed to rule out all their future options so that if they ever do get into power they won’t be able to do anything. Miliband refuses to rule out breathing after the election! Then suddenly a wild hashtag appears…

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/NotRuledOutByTheSNP?src=hash

    dazh – Member

    And a very easy one for labour to neutralise by removing the ambiguity around any informal deals.

    If by “neutralise” you mean “capitulate on and give their opponents exactly what they want” then yes.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    whats the gist THM?

    It does seem counterproductive in the long run, alienating scots and threatening the union, im not even sure what threat the evil SNP pose to the country were they in coalition
    its all just a bit of below the belt, slightly sexist negative campaigning and seems to have fall to do with policy

    I can see the appeal to lynton crosby though as it does have labour flapping around too scared to answer and has slowed the public perception of milliband’s transformation from plasticene joke to potential statesman

    mefty
    Free Member

    its all just a bit of below the belt, slightly sexist negative campaigning and seems to have fall to do with policy

    The Tories attacking the SNP works for the SNP as much as the Tories. Labour need to come up with an answer, maybe Shapps is a dead cat.

    slowoldgit
    Free Member

    Shapps can’t be hung out to dry until after the election. It may even be in the rules, purdah or whatever.

    To me the photo of the three women leaders in a hug, with Ed looking like a spare part, was the beginning of the end for him.

    dragon
    Free Member

    Is it just me though or have things gone off the boil?

    Yep, I think everyone is fed up with the general bullsh*t from all parties. I’m not sure all these TV debates are helping, it all seems excessive and the viewing figures are falling fast, was around 4 Million for the last one, down from over 7 Million initially.

    rone
    Full Member

    Don’t know about you lot but I am taking a day off to watch the election. I am going to have Fish & Chips or local burger with few bottle of beers in preparation of the election result.

    Sounds a good day. I will do the same. Not interested in big sporting events; but this – I’m in.

    Armando Iannucci tells it properly.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    To me the photo of the three women leaders in a hug, with Ed looking like a spare part, was the beginning of the end for him.

    really? i thought his approval ratings had been rising since

    slowoldgit
    Free Member

    I think his charisma level is static though.

    That election forecast site is interesting, it gives a range and covers accuracy issues. I’ve not seen that elsewhere, meaning MSM.

    johnx2
    Free Member

    I think his charisma level is static though.

    Ah, but I’m guessing from your username that you’re not a teenage girl?

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahjewell/the-milifandom#.mhv1pnmzQ

    Blimey! “He can cut my deficit…” 😯

    dazh
    Full Member

    If by “neutralise” you mean “capitulate on and give their opponents exactly what they want” then yes.

    Not sure I agree with that. The tories are feeding off the uncertainty of a potential labour-SNP informal support arrangement. Labour, in typical dithering fashion are trying to hedge their bets by ruling out a formal coalition but deflecting an answer on anything informal, when really they could afford to be bold and rule out any form of informal deal with the SNP in the full knowledge that the SNP would never vote with the tories, and deny the tories the opportunity of accusing the labour party of arranging back room deals with the SNP. That’s not capitulation, it’s just sensible strategy. Like I said though it’s probably too late for that now as they’d be accused of backtracking and the tories would claim a victory, so in that sense you’re probably right.

    jambalaya
    Free Member

    @Northwind, agreed the standard press question this election seems to be “will you rule out”. I suppose the Clegg idiocy of describing AV as a grubby compromise and making that commitment not to raise tuition fees means every journalist is trying to replicate such pledges.

    It is interesting how so much debate had been about how much UKIP would hurt the Tories when the reality is likely to be how much the SNP will hurt Labour. That is going to be one of the key elements of this election.

    I still believe the pollsters will be proven to be quite misleading, especially in English seats. I also think the SNP will do less well than polls suggest but still do a lot of damage to Labour, 35-40 seats ?

    breatheeasy
    Free Member

    It is interesting how so much debate had been about how much UKIP would hurt the Tories when the reality is likely to be how much the SNP will hurt Labour. That is going to be one of the key elements of this election.

    I think that UKIP will hurt Labour – by their voters flooding back to the Conservatives when it comes to finally not be a ‘protest’ vote and it’s for real with the thought of Labour being the ‘alternative’.

    ernie_lynch
    Free Member

    teamhurtmore – Member

    I see Cleggy going for the public sector vote this morning with (unconditional?) pay rises. Great idea Nick…..

    Mark Serwotka, general secretary of the Public and Commercial Services Union, was critical of the announcement. He said: “The Lib Dems have spent five years with the Tories cutting the pay, pensions and jobs of public servants, so this Damascene conversion on the eve of electoral humiliation will be seen for what it is.”

    Nick Clegg vows to end public sector pay cuts

    I think what Nick Clegg has offered is worth about as much as a LibDem pledge.

    And what “conditions” would like to see attached to no pay cuts THM ?

    In contrast of course the Tories have said that they can’t guarantee no pay cuts in the NHS (rises in line with inflation) a much better better policy eh THM ? Great for staff morale, great for attracting people into health care vocations, great for families to plan their future budgets and financial commitments, great to see ordinary working people pay the price for the failures of those with power and money who screwed the economy through their unregulated greed, eh THM ?

    Northwind
    Full Member

    dazh – Member

    Not sure I agree with that. The tories are feeding off the uncertainty of a potential labour-SNP informal support arrangement. Labour, in typical dithering fashion are trying to hedge their bets by ruling out a formal coalition but deflecting an answer on anything informal, when really they could afford to be bold and rule out any form of informal deal with the SNP

    The Tories gain far more by having Miliband rule out working with the SNP; it removes the biggest advantage he has at a stroke and basically levels the playing fields between the two parties. At the moment they’re making some capital from it but it’s penny ante stuff.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    Mark Serwotka, general secretary of the Public and Commercial Services Union, was critical of the announcement. He said: “The Lib Dems have spent five years with the Tories cutting the pay, pensions and jobs of public servants, so this Damascene conversion on the eve of electoral humiliation will be seen for what it is.”

    Come on.. it was clear what happened.

    Clegg had to decide on power to get some stuff done, vs principles and getting nothing done. A difficult choice.

    He still has to put forward policies though, but everyone (should) know that all bets are off if there’s a coalition negotiation. Painting him as weak and unprincipled isn’t fair and ignores the practicalities of the situation. And every political situation.. all you end up doing is complaining bitterly your whole life.

    Junkyard
    Free Member

    Miliband only path to power involves the SNP

    He wont rule it out as he will have to have some form of an accord with them post election in order to be PM

    They will use this to beat him before and after

    Avoiding a clegg pledge moment is the end game here.

    ernie_lynch
    Free Member

    Painting him as weak and unprincipled isn’t fair and ignores the practicalities of the situation.

    In that case we can expect a huge surge in LibDem support in next month’s general election compared to 5 years ago. All those millions of voters who voted LibDem with the specific aim of defeating the Tories will be overjoyed by Clegg’s strong and principled stand. They will simply ignore what Clegg and the LibDems have done for the last 5 years and judge him on what he now promises.

    How many extra seats do you expect those strong and principled LibDems to win molegrips ?

    dragon
    Free Member

    I’m with molgrips, the Lib Dems only had 50 odd seats, they were always going to have to make big compromises.

    Interesting for all the talk of Clegg at the last election they lost 5 seats, so I’d expect the general trend to continue.

    Junkyard
    Free Member

    😆 @ ernie

    there are big compromises and there is a complete reversal of what you promised to do.

    Painting him as weak and unprincipled isn’t fair

    he gave a pledge and a campaign about broken promises and they immediately broke their pledge and promises once in power

    FWIW i tend to agree they did achieve a lot after this – raising tax threshold, child premiums and stopping the tories from being complete ****
    However these successes cannot compensate for that complete and utter capitulation of principle.
    I expect him losing his seat to be the Portillo moment of this election

    dazh
    Full Member

    Miliband only path to power involves the SNP

    I’m not sure that’s true. If Labour come out as the biggest party, they’ll have the right to form a minority govt. They can do this without any formal or informal agreement from the SNP in full knowledge that the SNP will never vote with the tories against them. In that way they can govern and be confident of winning a confidence vote without even talking to them.

    ernie_lynch
    Free Member

    Interesting for all the talk of Clegg at the last election they lost 5 seats, so I’d expect the general trend to continue.

    At the last general election the LibDem vote increased by 1% compared to the previous general election, you expect this trend to continue on May 7 ?

    I think you might be in a minority there dragon. Most people expect the LibDems to lose up to two thirds of their votes next month, and they will be extremely lucky if they only manage to lose half their votes.

Viewing 40 posts - 281 through 320 (of 1,563 total)

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