Jamby,

It really doesn’t. The IFS report says clearly that they don’t know what’ll happen. They choose to suggest that it should be seen as punitive for higher earners but that’s just an opinion.

What is clear is that a Labour/SNP government would spend before they had seen the impact of their “tax rises”

Well yes, like most governments who decide to spend more.

with the most likely outcome being a massive increase in the deficit as tax revenues fall far short.

Proof? That’s just an opinion based on a personal view of the outcome of raising taxes.

I was recently thinking of the similarities between the British Empire, the Roman Empire and the Spanish Empire, when along comes Jim Sillars with this;

End of Empire

you mean he deliberately ran a clusterfk of a campaign knowing that hed have to rely on Gordon Brown to save his ass

There is no evidence he did save his ass, if anything Gordon Brown’s promise of the world to Scotland has led to further problems for Labour. Pretty much all the problems for Labour in Scotland are their own doing.

with the most likely outcome being a massive increase in the deficit as tax revenues fall far short.

Unless investing in the UK produces growth in which case tax revenues rise and you reduce the deficit.

End of Empire

That article is hilarious, if there is a record for the number of exaggerated claims in one paragraph, he’s won it.

breatheeasy – Member

Or does promising the world to Scotland get them off the hook a bit, as there won’t be an indepence referendum for a while.

What I’m hearing a lot is kind of the opposite, ironically- lots of people who’d not previously have voted SNP in a general election are saying that because independence is off the table for the moment, they’re happier to vote for them. Essentially the referendum cleared the way for people who don’t want independence, to vote for the rest of the SNP package.

My neighbour’s a former Labour councillor and strongly unionist (trade and nation), he’s voting SNP because as far as he’s concerned they’re closer to the party he joined than Labour are. I think poor Ricky Henderson almost shat himself when he heard that. My mum’s talking about voting SNP. At this rate, Gordon Brown will)

I know a lot of folks struggle with this but the SNP’s other policies have a lot of support from people who don’t want independence, especially among Labour supporters. This seemed to confuse people, especially journos, who were surprised that not all SNP voters voted Yes in the referendum; it was no surprise to anyone who’d been paying attention.

Remember, this swing isn’t actually new, it’s something that we’ve seen at Holyrood already over the last decade or so, it pre-dates the referendum (and in fact, made the referendum possible). The difference is that now people are voting the same way at westminster, for various reasons.

I think people are looking for simple explanations and the whole “Labour worked with the tories in the referendum” is popular for that reason, it fits the simplistic tribal politics idea. I don’t think it’s a primary consideration though, mainly because it puts cause after effect and ignores the long term trend

(there’s also the fptp state-change thing… There’s a lot of seats that the SNP had no chance of winning in before, which naturally suppressed their vote there as people would vote tactically. Once you reach the tipping point where a seat win is possible, things change very fast. My seat’s like this, you don’t have to go back far to a day when the SNP said “Vote labour here to get Rifkind out”, and a good day it was too. I have the great luxury of not having to do that any more)

In short… I think that fundamentally, a lot of people are voting for a party they like and a result they want. With a lot of caveats and considerations but that’s at the heart. We’re scots, we know how to slash people with an occam’s razor 😆

[video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDZm9_uKtyo[/video]

More money into Brand’s pocket, well into his tax efficient company structure I am sure. We can watch and make our own minds up about the wisdom of doing the interview.

dragon – Member

There is no evidence he did save his ass,

oh come on the government had misunderstood the mood in scotland at every turn, they lurched from one bad decision to the next even badder one, maybe ninfan was right they seemed so intent on offending the Scots!
without Brown’s intervention CallmeDave wouldve been the PM that dissolved the Union

it certainly cost labour plenty in Scotland and I wont argue that theyve been lazy and inneffective for some time up there

Oldbloke I said there wouldn’t be a referendum before the end of the next parliament so we are talking 5 years +. I think it is possible could fall over that time,but it could also grow more austerity under the perceived tory govt of whatever colour with SNP locked out.a possible exit from the EU when Scotland may well vote to stay in. Many factors could result in maintained or growing support for indy. Anyway this is a G.E. thread.

@Northwind surely you mean “we know how to chib people with an occcam’s razor. 😀

My seat’s like this, you don’t have to go back far to a day when the SNP said “Vote labour here to get Rifkind out”, and a good day it was too.

I take it you’re also in Edinburgh South-West then? My Scottish place is in Balerno and politics have always been a bit of a mix here (we had a Tory councillor and a Labour MP most of the time I’ve had the house there), but it’ll certainly be quite a change to get an SNP MP which is looking quite likely. Certainly Alistair Darling seemed to think it was likely!

without Brown’s intervention CallmeDave wouldve been the PM that dissolved the Union

Not convinced myself. Ok there was one poll that showed a possible yes vote (with a small majority) but that was an outlier and at no point in the campaign did I think a yes vote was likely. If anything it got a lot closer once the No campaign started, but I’m not convinced those panic driven late on promises my Brown and co. were necessary or helpful (other than to the SNP in the long run).

Yes, I think there have been studies showing the last-minute vows didn’t change the result.

Fundamentally, lots of people thought they’d give Westminster one last chance, and believed the stuff about Scotland being wanted in the Union. Now they’re feeling like they’ve been had.

wanmankylung – Member
Latest polls are showing that the SNP will win every seat in Scotland. Wouldnt that be good.

Brilliant – no excuses then and time to audit the rhetoric versus the practice

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b34f5ab0-ea76-11e4-a701-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YheN3r6F

as the FT notes, time for a proper audit and scrutiny of the SNP.

NW – CMD’s tax announcement is first and foremost a political trap. Its the reverse of the 50p stunt that Labour pulled.

If its not a trap and its to be taken at face value then the idea that there is little to chose between the two parties that matter is not true.

There is much greater clarity on priorities – the Tories will prioritise lower taxes, Labour the reverse. Much better now as you can make you own choice with greater clarity – unless they are talking porkies.

Perhaps CMD is also slipping the joker to Nick. Ok, when crunch comes we will trade off the tax cuts with you. You look smart (remember thresholds) and we get things done. we can then blame you for the broken promise – or is that too cynical?

15 mins of my life I can’t get back. Brand doesn’t understand an interview is where you ask the other guy questions rather than telling him what you think. Certainly no damage done to Miliband as he just agreed with 75% of what Brand said and it was pretty easy to push back on Brand’s nonsense about politics having delivered nothing since the right to vote for women – err the NHS Russell ?

Behind all the political BS and the misnamed austerity period – our budget deficit is twice that of the rest of Europe and on top of that our current account deficit is widening.

Whoever is next will have double deficits to deal with? Good job the fluffy parties have the policies to deal with this!

Unless investing in the UK produces growth in which case tax revenues rise and you reduce the deficit

Agreed @footflaps except that isn’t my view as to what would happen and it isn’t what happened when the French tried it.

epicsteve – Member

Not convinced myself.

the No votes lead in the polls dropped from a steady 15% to +/-2% by the eve of the election and Brown’s speech

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

or is that too cynical?

It’s politics. You can’t be cynical enough.

Indeed as I mentioned to one (increasingly agitated CEO today) the whole thing is intriguing in its awfulness.

As with the independence referendum, the whole debate has been created to avoid the central issues. Then we have the juxtapositioning of parties in relation to individual policies with each trying to take each other central ground.

Its not just Eton mess, its a comprehensive mess too (in both senses!)

the No votes lead in the polls dropped from a steady 15% to +/-2% by the eve of the election and Browns speech

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

The polls aren’t always right and I was convinced they were overstating the likelyhood of a Yes vote. I was predicting 40% yes until the No campaign started, then 45% yes after that – which was more accurate than the polling!

There were very, very few polls that predicted a Yes vote though. Enough to panic Brown and co. obviously, but I still don’t think the last minute promises (made after many/most postal votes were sent in fact) saved the day for the No campaign. In fact I suspect they did very little other than increase support for the SNP post-referendum.

Quite possibly what we’re seeing in Scotland isn’t really support for the SNP having increased hugely – just that the tendency for SNP voters to switch to Labour for Westminster elections looks like it has almost completely gone (plus a bit of a further swing away from Labour due to a extremely ineffective campaign and awful leadership).

gordimhor – Member

@Northwind surely you mean “we know how to chib people with an occcam’s razor.

You can’t chib someone with a razor! Amateur. Might as well try and open their face with your sharpened knitting needle.

Maybe my recollection is wrong but the thing that’s really got me this time is the consistent ignoring of questions and then simply repeating a prepared statement on the government’s performance on X or the party’s policy on Y – absolutely no attempt to even engage with interviewers’ questions or to actually debate. It’s no wonder that smaller parties are becoming more popular.

FWIW, as stated above, the ‘No’ vote on independence makes the SNP much more attractive for many of scotland’s voters who would like a proper left wing Labour party to vote for but can now vote for the SNP safe in the knowledge that it won’t lead to independence.

Rules please,a chib for slashing and a knitting needle for slipping between the ribs.And it can be an open razor,I grew up thinking the scar on my Dad’s face was from a car crash.

the ‘No’ vote on independence makes the SNP much more attractive for many of scotland’s voters who would like a proper left wing Labour party to vote for

This I can understand as possible. I’ve read the SNP manifesto and to the uncritical reader living under the SNP might sound like Utopia.

I’ve read the SNP manifesto and to the uncritical reader living under the SNP might sound like Utopia.I did not like it

Why not just say that and explain why ?

#stillundecidedjam
Everyday someone new tells you hat you dont make sense and yet on you go unaffected.

Is there any point reading manifestos? It’s not like any party will get the majority it needs to carry out the things in its manifesto, and parties change their minds all the time. To an uncritical reader, all manifestos probably sound marvelous.

So the question is, who do you like and trust the most?

To an uncritical reader, all manifestos probably sound marvelous

Try reading the green one. To the “uncritical” reader is sounds like a horror story.

All Your Base Are Belong To Us

Its actually getting a bit silly now.

So in England there is the “Shy Tory” phenomenon – the Tory’s support is always understated as some people are embarrassed to admit they will vote Tory.

I think there has to be a similar thing happening in Scotland with Labour voters. There will be a few people currently being swept along by the SNP tsunami who in the quiet of the voting booth, pen in quivering hand, will stick the X in the Labour box as they have always done.

Despite there not being a single projection that has the SNP on less then 50 seats I think come May the 8th it will be more like 45.

Jim Murphy will claim this as a victory and again stand astride Scottish politics like the true colossus he is.

Maybe my recollection is wrong but the thing that’s really got me this time is the consistent ignoring of questions and then simply repeating a prepared statement on the government’s performance on X or the party’s policy on Y

Been like that for a long time. Partly the fault of the media as they spin any minor deviance (or exclusive) out of all proportion, so the end results is that politicians will only ever make ‘on message’ statements. Does mean I rarely bother to watch any interviews (not having a TV helps make this quite easy).

FWIW, as stated above, the ‘No’ vote on independence makes the SNP much more attractive for many of scotland’s voters who would like a proper left wing Labour party to vote for but can now vote for the SNP safe in the knowledge that it won’t lead to independence.

Do you think so? I’d expect that if they win nearly all the Scottish seats they’ll take that as a mandate to push for a re-match.

Serious q – have you made up your minds as to who you’re voting for? I’m struggling!

Do you think so? I’d expect that if they win nearly all the Scottish seats they’ll take that as a mandate to push for a re-match.

If they did win all the seats in Scotland (which I think is unlikely!) then I suspect it probably is a pretty clear mandate for a re-match!

The way that’d work is that they’d then include it in their manifesto for the next Scottish Parliament elections (which they’re currently saying is unlikely) so people would get a chance to vote with that in mind anyway.

Partly the fault of the media as they spin any minor deviance (or exclusive) out of all proportion, so the end results is that politicians will only ever make ‘on message’ statements.

+1, happens with everything, the media moan there are no personalities in politics or sport etc. but then hammer them for anything they say they don’t like. In the age of Twitter etc. it’s just going to get worse.

This election must have the least amount of policies announced by parties ever. As the UK sinks ever deeper into the mire, all they do is fiddle around the fringes.

For instance anyone want to try and explain the energy or agriculture policy for any of the main parties?

The guardian’s seat projection for scotland is now 57 SNP, 1 Tory, 0 anything else. That’s just weird.

The bit I like though is the Movable Tory. Got wiped out in Galloway and moved to Tweedale. Now Mundell’s forecast to lose Tweedale to the SNP but Selkirk to go blue in the face of lib dem annihilation.

It’s whack-a-tory, hit one on the head and another one pops up.

I think the Salmon Who Would be King is most definitely thinking an SNP landslide is an endorsement of a new refernedum

Im wondering if Red Ed really is as red as he was initially painted if the SNP/ Lab coalition might not synchronise quite well with a very left wing agenda….

So in England there is the “Shy Tory” phenomenon – the Tory’s support is always understated as some people are embarrassed to admit they will vote Tory.

😆

Strange, but almost undeniably true. They’re a safe(ish) bet. Conservative by name…

The guardian’s seat projection for scotland is now 57 SNP, 1 Tory, 0 anything else. That’s just weird.

Won’t happen though as I think they’re just averaging the swing to SNP across all the seats. I’ll be amazed if Labour don’t get at least 10 but am really hoping that Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy both lose their seats.

I think the Salmon Who Would be King is most definitely thinking an SNP landslide is an endorsement of a new refernedum

In his position would you think any different?

Im wondering if Red Ed really is as red as he was initially painted if the SNP/ Lab coalition might not synchronise quite well with a very left wing agenda….

There has been some SNP support from the unions as they seem to like them being left of Labour.

ill bet the Sun absolutely lays into millibrand tomorrow as they discussed curbing murdoch’s influence

Apparently they’re using constituency polling as well as national. But the speed of change on these is too high to put much confidence in them imo, fast flows can fast ebb. OTOH there’s huge momentum there, and as I mentioned earlier assorted FPTP Bullshit.

SNP so far behind in the Dumfriesshire constituency its hard to see them winning it – possible of course, LibDems defect to Tories to keep the SNP out ? IMO classic example of using polling across Scotland to predict result is a single constituency with quite a different demographic.