Viewing 40 posts - 41 through 80 (of 83 total)
  • Double dip recession?
  • coffeeking
    Free Member

    House prices need to fall, they are still unaffordable for too big a percentage of the population, without signing up to ridiculous levels of debt.

    Houses round me are pretty cheap – plenty on the market for sub 50K. But I'd not want to live in them due to their location.

    Throw our weight behind UK manufacturing – we CAN make good stuff and need to champion our engineering industry and export stuff – "British made" still sells.

    I'd question that – we're producing fewer and fewer decent engineers and engineering firms, the entry grades for engineering degrees are dropping and funding for courses is falling.

    molgrips
    Free Member

    That sounds simple, mat. Great. You clearly are an expert in economics 🙄

    molgrips
    Free Member

    It's widely known that we can manufacture good stuff, but what we can't do is mass produce cheap stuff, due to simple economics. That's why our manufacturing output is mostly very low volume high skills stuff, like satellite parts etc.

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    Surf-Mat
    Free Member

    I am an economics genius I'll have you know.

    Our nation is built on BS to keep the masses "in check" – make everyone mortgage themselves up – control them with interest rates. Make everyone rely in diesel – whack up tax on diesel. Many other examples.

    Try and live your life as much away from government control as you can then you'll be okay. Ish.

    coffeeking
    Free Member

    It's widely known that we can manufacture good stuff, but what we can't do is mass produce cheap stuff, due to simple economics. That's why our manufacturing output is mostly very low volume high skills stuff, like satellite parts etc.

    Yup, but the number and quality of our good engineers is falling fairly rapidly, many choosing to move abroad I believe. We may be find for now, but the coming years may see a distinct problem for basing significant engineering industry on.

    Junkyard
    Free Member

    I think only the most biased of view could try and make Labour out to be saints in this whole situation, the older generation tell me that the tories had to do exactly the same the last time they got in after labour

    as many have said the current situation has affected the entire world so unless you think labour did that then you have to accept it was global factors that have hit us. That said we can discuss what the govt did to mitigate the effects to get us out the sh1t.
    Labour got the world behind fiscal spending and we are out of the recession having done OK [relative term granted]. The risk now is another dip which will be caused by the current govts actions/inactions. Again true to say they cannot be held to blame for the situation but they can be held to account if their policies cause a double dip recession- which is the most likely occurence of reducing govt spending. Anyone else got any money to help out? Benevolent international financers coming along to help out? Seems unlikely.
    I normally say respect your elders but they are somewhat blinkered/BS to suggest they had to do it last time. We did not have to rid ourselves of the coal industry, steel etc but certainly they had to do some things to those industries. Choosing to close them down and import coal and steel , creating mass unemployment in entire towns and valleys of Wales that we are still paying for [benefits etc] was not inevitable it was choice.
    Ditto now they are choosing to balance the books this year it is not being forced on them though some action/choice is.

    Surf-Mat
    Free Member

    we are out of the recession having done OK

    Errrmmm….

    Edukator
    Free Member

    We might have some differences on driving technique but I agree with your "Errrrmmmm" Surf.

    So deficits of all sorts are higher than before, personal debt is as high as ever, a stronger pound will make exporting more difficult than before and we're out of the recession having done OK. I'd like to believe but I'm struggling.

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    Edukator – done OK relatively – compared to other nations. We are out of recession now so if we tip back in without a change in global conditions it will be the tories fault. Our debt is lower than many countries and unemployment lower

    Brown has received plaudits world wide for his handling of the crisis and most countries followed his lead in putting money into the economy

    Even Barak Obanma wants all countries to continue putting money into the economy to avoid a 1930w style recession

    jamesca
    Free Member

    we are out of recession because of increased government debt and by printing money, so yes if the tories remove this then there is a real chance we might slip back into recession but what else can we do.

    I voted tory for the first time ever because of the total mess labour have made of this country, what's wrong with a public sector pay freeze i've not had a pay rise for the last 2 years and yes you should pay more for your pensions it's only fair!

    I must say TJ you are a total fool and very selfish (I am guessing your work in the public sector).

    Rio
    Full Member

    Lots of things could dump us back into recession. If the Euro zone doesn't pull itself out of its current mess then that could do it; no-one's sure what the overall effect of QE is – it certainly postponed problems until after the election at the expense of continuing the house-price boom but now that it's ended who knows what will happen; by my calculation suspending the BP dividend has taken about £1bn out of the economy; normally at this stage you'd hope for tax cuts to stimulate spending and investment but that isn't going to happen etc etc. And in the long term the cuts in spending on serious education (and I mean proper Universities and research, not degrees in beauty therapy to keep unemployment down) will seriously affect our long term prospects IMHO. Depressing really.

    firestarter
    Free Member

    jamesca ive had a pay rise of 1% for last 3 year and we are now on a pay freeze for 5 more years (even without what the govt do tomorrow) and i pay £238 a month to my pension which i think is quite a lot tbh , dont you ?

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    Jamesca – at least I understand the issues unlike you.

    do you realise that thr NHS pension scheme has been reformed? The average pension form the public sector is under £10 000 pa? That actually this year public sector pension contributions were more than the payouts? I pay 9% of my salary to get my pension. Just becaus e many of the public sector pension schemes have gone down the pan because of contributions holidays taken under the tories doesn't mean you have to take away my pension.

    So if you cut the public sector pensions you put people into poverty and then have to pay them benefits?

    AS for the double dip recession the answer is to aim to rebalance the budget over a few years not over one. This is the lesson from the 30s and the 80s.

    The vast majority of the worlds economists say that it is too early to cut spending – raise taxation instead. Or just wait a year or so until the recovery is more solid. Cutting government spending now won't even alance the bookls as all it will do is cut activity in the economy that will then reduce taxation – as people in work go on the dole – they stop paying tax and start claiming benefits.

    The coming double dip receeession will cripple the country. You think its bad now.

    BTW – as expalined by othres on this thread the recession was a glaobal one and under labour it affected us less than many othe rcountries.

    Still – don't let any facts or the truth get int eh way of yor stupid acceptance of neocon propaganda. You have been conned you know – and I wonder if you will lose your job as a result of the policies of those clowns you voited for.

    jamesca
    Free Member

    depends what you hope to get out of your pension £238 you would get you a pretty poor private pension.

    firestarter
    Free Member

    £238 a month for thirty five years but its linked to my salary so if i ever get a pay rise it goes up 😉 i hope to be able to get by, nowt special but not be needing to attempt to survive on scraps

    Farmer_John
    Free Member

    "I pay 9% of my salary to get my pension. "

    The problem is that most people due to collect a public sector pension simply don't understand that the schemes aren't funded from member contributions – the 9% member contribution doesn't actually fund the actual pension received.

    By way of explanation, there's no savings "pot" for the NHS scheme – pensions to NHS staff are paid for out of the member contributions with any shortfall paid for by the tax payer. As various reports have highlighted in recent weeks:

    1. the "gap" between what members pay in and what is paid out means that the value of many public sector pension schemes is now somewhere between 30 and 40% of salary.
    2. on average, public sector workers work 9 years less and taking pensions into account, effectively earn 30% more.

    Now is the time for some balance to return. Public sector workers deserve the same level of pension as their private sector peers who in the main pay more towards the public sector pensions than towards their own personal pension arrangements.

    We must all pay our way – and that means that the public sector workers who effectively get an employer contribution of £3-4 to every £1 they fund will now have to accept lower pensions or will have to pay more themselves – just like everyone else has had to for many years.

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    Farmer john = that is so much pish.

    At the moment public sector pension contributions are greater than the payouts and the future deficit is easily manageable. So at the moment the exchequer recieves millions from public sector pension contributions that is not paid out in payments

    yes I get more for my 9% than I would in a private pension.

    For work of equal value then public sector pay is lower – significantly so. You sum is skewed by the fact that there are many more manual workers in the private sector. If you take two graduates of equivalent experience the pay in the private sector is much higher.

    I have a diploma and a degree, 30 yrs experience and my salary is under £25 000 pa.( pro rata – I work part time) For that I take life and death decisions and work unsocial shifts in stressful circumstances

    For every £ that the government subsidised public sector pensions private sector pensions get £7 of subsidy in the form of tax breaks – most of which goes to the rich. So actually I am subsuiding private sector pensions

    again you have believed the neocon propaganda.

    actually private sector workers deserve the same pensions as public sector workers – which many of them used to have until the pensions contributions holidays under the tories wrecked the funds

    tonyd
    Full Member

    House prices are not going to fall. We live in a small country with limited available housing. The only way that prices fall will be if you restrict lending, and if you do that then unless you've got a massive deposit you still won't be able to afford one

    Restricting the lending policy of the last decade can only be a good thing. Encouraging people to take on 4,5,6,7, etc x income to buy an overpriced asset is what got us here, especially with 125% interest only mortgages. Utterly ludicrous that it was allowed.

    this recession is due to global influences in the main not national policies. Hence everyone else caught it as well. Unlike the tory recession of the early 80s this time we suffered less than most similar countries. That one we suffered more.

    The issue is taking money out of the economy now. The vast majority of the worlds economists say it is the wrong time to do so – we will see tho if we go back into recession is purely the tory policy fault.
    We haven't felt the affects of the recession yet because of the quantative easing (money printing) and near zero interest rate policy decisions taken by Gordon Brown. All this did was devalue the pound, importing inflation, and rob savers of any real return (most savings accounts pay well below inflation).

    Other nations have suffered, but we were far from innocent in this and have yet to take our medicice. Reliance on the financial services industry and encouraging reckless lending and extreme risk taking (Credit Default Swaps for example) almost took down the whole system. Bailing out the banks has created a huge moral hazard in that we the tax payer are now underwriting their risk taking. They should have been allowed to fail.

    If we go back into recession it's because we shouldn't have come out of it in the first place! Labour printed £200billion and all it bought them was a what, 0.3% growth figure? Funny how that happened to come just before an election eh?! Also, ever wondered why it takes two consecutive negative quarters to enter recession but only one positive to come out?

    Our nation is built on BS to keep the masses "in check" – make everyone mortgage themselves up – control them with interest rates. Make everyone rely in diesel – whack up tax on diesel. Many other examples.

    Amen. The only people that gain from prohibitively expensive housing are the banks (profit on that massive mortgage) and the state (if you're working to pay off debts you're easy to control)

    Our debt is lower than many countries and unemployment lower

    Debt may be lower on paper, but when you start adding the private finance initiatives advocated by Labour over the years (pensions etc included IIRC) then it's massive, then add in the private debt. The books have been cooked, we are one of the most indebted nations in the world from what I can see.

    Official unemployment may be low(ish) but IMO these books are cooked too. How many people are working part time because they can't get full time, or aren't claiming because they have too many savings, or have dropped off the books because they've been unemployed for longer than 6 months and can no longer claim JSA?

    Labour have brought the country to it's knees, just as they did in the 70s. In fact it was probably easier to get out of that mess because now we are a global economy we can't realistically inflate our way out of debt.

    God now I need a drink. I thought this was a bike forum? If I wanted to get this depressed and angry I'd have gone across to HousePriceCrash!!!!

    DT78
    Free Member

    Being a perceived 'work shy' 'over-benefited' public sector employee (of 2 years) I'm quite happy for my pension to be reviewed as long as the same is the case of my pay….bring my salary up to what I was on in the banking industry where my pension was 8% contribution and the bank paid 20% I'll be happy

    Tbh, I'm amazed people are banging the drum still about public sector pay, having worked in it for a few years, what is scandalous is the level (and salary) of senior contractors and how money is just handed out to other organisations not what the average civil servant is paid.

    firestarter
    Free Member

    all good in theory but as we know doing the same job in the private sector the pay is higher than in the public sector. the reason people put up with lower wages on the whole was better pensions at the and and more job security

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    Farmer john – the average public sector pension is under £10 000 pa – most under £5000 pa

    jamesca
    Free Member

    what is the average public sector pension for someone who has worked the full 30 years full time in the public sector? those stats mean nothing.

    were pension holidays the tories fault, did they recommend them? or were companies just greedy all by themselves.

    tonyd
    Full Member

    So actually I am subsuiding private sector pensions

    Righto, but where do your wages come from? Tax on private sector salaries perchance? Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to start a public/private sector row here but let's get some perspective. ALL public sector employees are paid for by taxes on the private sector, the public sector has become bloated under Labour to the point where very soon it cannot be supported by the private sector. Yes you pay taxes, NI, pension contributions, etc, but that money comes from the wealth generating private sector.

    The fact of the matter is that it doesn't matter who deserves what, if we can't afford it we cant afford it. I would imagine that a large part of the reasoning for private sector companies stopping final salary pension schemes was because they simply couldn't afford them and remain profitable – as much as I'd like one I'm not going to get it, fortunately for the public sector we the taxpayer aren't as sharp or questioning as shareholders in a private corporation but we're catching on.

    Oh, I work in the private sector and haven't had a pay rise in about 4 years (despite still getting promotions!) and consider myself lucky to be in a job currently.

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    jamesca – you need to work at least 40 years to get the full pension. Not 30 years

    Yes the pension holidays were the tories fault – they allowed it to happen by passing legislation to allow it.

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    tony – fair point. However remember public spending is lower as a % of gdp now than under thatcher simply because of the years of growth and low unemployment ( although it has just about caught up)

    Private companies could easily afford decent pensions if they wanted to – some still do and pensions for the bosses are very generous indeed – whereas everyone in the public sector gets the same deal. What happened was that the private companies took pension contribution holidays during the lawson booms – so when the bust came the funds did not have enough money in them. The money was spent on dividends instead and on massive payouts to the bossses

    If those pension contribution holidays had not been taken then the funds would have had plenty of money.

    jamesca
    Free Member

    okay then 40 years.

    when i started working 13 years ago final salery was pretty much the norm in civil engineering consultants, now none have it (that i know of) is that the tories fault as well?

    tinribz
    Free Member

    Lets see what happens when they try fiddling with the public sector pensions, they'll have to bring in the army to stop Osbourne being lynched. Mark my words.

    It beggars belief but there are a lot of up themselves Tory Voters in the Civil Services who would grit their teeth and take pay freezes and cuts without wavering, but mention pensions…..rivers of blood.

    As for the Lib Dems, no one is ever going to trust or vote for them ever again, they must know that by now?

    Farmer_John
    Free Member

    Two points for Mr Tandem:

    1. Don't take my word for the fact that public sector pensions aren't fully funded by members, take the word of the NAO:

    NAO: Employers put in £19.3Bn to employees' £4.4Bn

    2. Median public sector pay is now around 15% higher than private sector pay: Public sector pay and conditions outstrips private sector

    Farmer_John
    Free Member

    One final point – "Private companies could easily afford decent pensions if they wanted to"

    Most companies' biggest cost is wages and achieve 10% profit margins or greater – hiking employer pension contributions to the 30% level needed to achieve parity with the public sector would quickly result in companies going bust, and somewhat ironically, would also result in a drop in the very taxes need to pay for the public sector pension top ups.

    You really have to be on another planet to believe that most companies can afford to raise costs by 5% at the moment – let alone 15 or 20%.

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    Can you read farmer john – on the salary comparison you are not comparing like with like. For jobs of equal skill / training / experience private sector pays significantly more.

    On the pensions on that is not what you said earlier nor did I deny it.

    Future payouts are not fully funded. At the moment payouts are less than contributions. However it is a modest amount and easily affordable.

    have a read around here for an opposite view to the neocon propaganda you have swallowed.

    Take your pinch of salt with you. It might well be needed
    http://www.tuc.org.uk/pensions/index.cfm?mins=613

    New figures published today (Friday) in the National Audit Office (NAO) report on pay-as-you-go public sector pensions show that they are affordable, sustainable and far from gold-plated, say the TUC.

    Figures in the NAO report show that:

    Employee contributions to these schemes have increased faster (56 per cent) than pension payments (38 per cent) since 2000.

    There has only been a two per cent real terms increase in the average pension in payment since 2000 – the average teachers' pension has fallen by four per cent over that period and the average NHS pension is unchanged.

    The vast majority of pensions in payment are modest. The NAO report shows that most pensions paid in both the NHS and civil service are below £110 a week, a quarter of NHS pensions are less than £40 a week and a quarter of civil service pensions are less than £60 a week.

    Fewer than 0.2 per cent of teacher pensioners, 1.8 per cent of civil service pensioners and 2.5 per cent of NHS pensioners get pensions of more than £40,000.

    Future projections show that the cost of pensions in payment will rise by just 0.2 per cent of GDP to peak at 1.9 per cent from 2018 and then fall again to their current level by 2059. These projections do not even include the billions of pounds that public sector workers will contribute to their pensions.

    It is entirely legitimate for the Treasury to contribute to the cost of pensions in payment above the level of employer contributions. The report says, 'In pay-as-you-go schemes…Treasury payments reflect the benefit of past alternative use of pension contributions to fund government activities without additional taxation or borrowing.'

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    And on your last one – of course they could if all companies did so – the alternative is the taxpayer pays thru benefits. And your figure of 30% of salary to get pensions is just rubbish

    read the TUVC stuff for the other side of the equation – you really have bought the moral panic created by the neocan agenda

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    The cost of providing tax relief on pensions in 2007/8 was £37.6 billion according to HMRC figures – ten times the net cost of unfunded public sector pension schemes that are not backed by an investment fund. This is estimated by the Treasury to be £4 billion this year.

    Tax relief is heavily skewed towards the better off. Treasury figures reveal that 60 per cent of tax relief goes to higher rate taxpayers, including 25 per cent – nearly £10 billion a year – going to the top one per cent of earners, on more than £150,000 a year.

    Farmer_John
    Free Member

    "And on your last one – of course they could if all companies did so"

    Are you seriously suggesting that if all UK companies raised their costs by 20% that our international trading partners would simply carry on buying the same level of goods and services?

    You're also right on the lack of parity in private / public sector jobs with equal skills not having pay parity – as evidenced by the many poor sods on minimum wage who work every bit as their public sector peers for less holiday and no pensions.

    thisisnotaspoon
    Free Member

    coulple of bits of bolloks up there —–^

    1st – engineering, its now harder to get on my old course than it was when I started, not easier, I'm going to hazzard a guess that is similar for most engieering diciplines

    2nd – the encouraging of diesel consumption followed by a tax hike. The scrapage scheme was a massive booster for small PETROL cars as these are cheeper to buy and as a result you could get a £7k petrol car for £5k or the equivalent diesel for say £9k down to £7k. As a proportion more people went for the petrol cars as they became even more of a bargain.

    Edukator
    Free Member

    Paying 9% of your slaery into a pension fund is fine if everybody drops dead at 70. Think about it.

    NZCol
    Full Member

    thisisnotaspoon – Member
    I'd agree, but I've got most of a deposit for a house saved up, but a bit put off by the thought that
    a) interest rates could hit 12% (I'm screwed if I buy a house as I wont be able to pay for it)
    b) inflation could hit 15% (I'm buggered if I don't as my deposit will become worthless)
    And my CV won't quite get me a visa for Oz/NZ just yet

    I hate to tell you this but we've got stealth inflation, taxes going up, GST rising to 15%, did you know interest rates were once well north of 25% in the 80's, they are back up to nearer 8% at the moment, a block of butter costs almost $5 at the moment. Seriously, don't book your flight based on A Place in The Fckng Sun, its not all that great financially and house prices are bonkers wrt salaries STILL, and the weather is shit because of Thatcher or the Russians, can't decide which. But on the bright side we seem to have become a soccer nation. Which is nice.

    thisisnotaspoon
    Free Member

    aww but it looks so good on TV :'(

    $5 for a block of butter isnt far off european prices at the moment, Britain is teetering on the edge with supermarkets keeping prices as low as they can. There was a company on the news last night that was set up purely to take tesco diect deliveries, put them in a van, and drive them to people in france. Even with a 15% delivery charge the people there were saving anything upto 50% on shopping :-S

    tiger_roach
    Free Member

    thisisnotaspoon – got a link? The prices did surprise me when I was in France 12 months ago, even with the weak pound, but sounds crazy to buy here and ship over.

    Edukator
    Free Member

    There was a company on the news last night that was set up purely to take tesco diect deliveries, put them in a van, and drive them to people in france. Even with a 15% delivery charge the people there were saving anything upto 50% on shopping :-S

    Utter tosh, German supermarkeks are the cheapest I've found in Europe. The prices in Lidl have been similar in the stores that I visited in France, the UK and Spain, and just slightly cheaper in Germany. As for Tesco they have some of the highest margins among European retailers and are a part of rip-off Britian if you could but see it.

    Edit: holding Tesco shares is perhaps a good idea, shopping there is not.

    5lab
    Full Member

    t thing with house prices – even if they drop, by any x percent, the same people will still be unable to buy them

    lets say you are the 10th richest person in your village, and there are 9 houses for sale. House prices are too high, you claim, as you're unable to afford house 9 (its' probably priced at 4x the 9th richest person's wages)

    now, lets say lending gets heavily restricted in some way (ie interest rates double). payments are now twice as much on a house, so house prices half. there's still 9 people richer than you in the village, and they're still going to buy all the houses

    that's obviously oversimplified, but it makes sense. The only think house prices dropping would really do is give us more money to spend on other stuff, but then if we all have more money to spend on other stuff, inflation of that item rises (basic supply and demand) so we're no better off :S

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