Seeing there are financial problems Ireland, Portugal , Greece (and others?) at the moment and the discussions around bailing out are we likely to see the pound recover?

A few years ago I’m pretty sure I remember getting around 1.4 to the pound. Last ski trip it was a little over 1…

might do but wouldnt that screw the economy?

if the pound increases against the euro won’t exports to the eurozone be more expensive

Exports will become more expensive, but the counter is imports should be cheaper as the pound will buy more. And of course my holidays would be cheaper 🙂

Dont think so as the last time the Euro lost value
They just put it up.
It should basicaly be scrapped how the hell can you
keep trying to keep such a dream alive when nearly
every Country attached to it as nearly gone broke

Just why would you want to Join?

Exports will become more expensive, but the counter is imports should be cheaper as the pound will buy more. And of course my holidays would be cheaper

great, happy for you 🙄

No not significantly
The Eurozone is dominated by France and Germany both of whose economies are far stronger than the UK

No not significantly
The Eurozone is dominated by France and Germany both of whose economies are far stronger than the UK

Not if they keep having to bail out the likes of Ireland and Greece. A hundred billion here, a hundred billion there; it soon adds up to real money.

A change in the B of E base rate right now could have an interesting impact…

Not if they keep having to bail out the likes of Ireland and Greece. A hundred billion here, a hundred billion there; it soon adds up to real money.

And this will probably be one of the main strengths or ultimate downfall of the €uro. UK has the ability of controlling it’s own economy whereas the €uro covers all economies from the strong to the weak without govts being able to tailor economic policy for their own specific needs. If the €uro survives the crisis it will, I feel, be a very potent force. Currently though it doesn’t look, to me, as being particularly strong.

We have teh same issue in the Uk – what’s best for London is not what’s best for the north east is not what’s best for Scotland

And you can take it to the micro level, what’s good for Nº16 Arcacia Ave isn’t going to be good for Nº18 Arcacia Ave etc, etc. The UK has grown in a more organic fashion whereas the €urozone has had a very short period to adapt. We are clearly seeing now different cultural attitudes to running economies. That’s why I said it’ll either fail or succeed dramaticaly. 😀

The € hasn’t traded outside of a 7p band centered about €1.13 to the £1 for about 2 years, while all this time there’s been the **** about Greece and speculation about Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain, etc…

That is quite a tight band, compared to the devaluations of the £ which took it from a very stable €1.50 down to about €1.05.

OK past history is no guide to the future and all that, but it’s not only Eurozone countries bailing out banks, and undertaking austerity measures.

Just why would you want to Join

If you’re from Romania, Armenia, Lithuania …….etc

Do we export anything these days?

don simon – Member

And this will probably be one of the main strengths or ultimate downfall of the €uro. UK has the ability of controlling it’s own economy whereas the €uro covers all economies from the strong to the weak without govts being able to tailor economic policy for their own specific needs. If the €uro survives the crisis it will, I feel, be a very potent force. Currently though it doesn’t look, to me, as being particularly strong.

The members of the Euro still have the ability to change fiscal policy to generate or subdue economic demand though, so they do still have an element of control.

Is there any benefit in having a strong currency at the moment?

The members of the Euro still have the ability to change fiscal policy to generate or subdue economic demand though, so they do still have an element of control.

Isn’t that becoming a somewhat theoretical ability though? Both Greece and Ireland are going to have to produce budgets that the Germans are prepared to pay for.

^^^^

Yes, I see what you mean.

However, any country that had problems like Greece and Ireland and was not a member of the Euro and approached the IMF for a bail out would see probably see some sort of restrictions placed on its fiscal policy.

I was really meaning about a country that generally had things under control rather than country that was in crisis.

Lower pound and other countries buy more from us.

And lots of Aussies visit London on holiday lol.

Low £ will help recovery for a while anyway.

The UK is seen to be in a bad situation and the status in Greece, Ireland etc has been common knowledge for a while. If anything, sorting out the Irish siuation as is on the cards at the moment may even strengthen the Euro.

I don’t think anything much is going to change dramatically until UK, Europe or US make a move either out of or back into recession

We have teh same issue in the Uk – what’s best for London is not what’s best for the north east is not what’s best for Scotland

It seems churlish to remind you (but I will, because I am) that a couple of years back you were declaring that Iceland and Ireland were examples of what Scotland could be like once it gained independence and joined the euro 🙂

Almost – the point was that small countries such as them can be viable – as is Norway and Denmark.

People say Scotland is too small to be independent. As other small countries on the edge of Europe manage?????

IanMunro – Member

It seems churlish to remind you (but I will, because I am) that a couple of years back you were declaring that Iceland and Ireland were examples of what Scotland could be like once it gained independence and joined the euro

The Celtic-Nordic ‘Prosperity Arch’ or some such bollocks?

SNP types have gone VERY quiet about that lately! 😈

TJ Dont think Scotland is economical viable
at the moment as it depends heavily on hand-outs from London
Being independant is one with but Scotland could not
support itself on its own has a Country not for many years

PS Nothing against Scotland here

There is a view that London relies on handouts from the rest of Britain – basically it depends how you calculate it and what you take into account.

Of course the future of energy supplies might affect things – London and the southeast consume loads and have no resources; other parts of the country are somewhat better off. There are views of the future currently circulating (and not ridiculous silly ones either) that suggest that the southeast is about to become unsustainable in terms of the resources people need to live – ie water, energy and the like. Of course spending silly amounts on infrastructure (as is traditional in the southeast) might help – but they will be really silly this time.

LOL igm keep trying

grantway – not my view necessarily. I tend to read many views and subscribe to few – anyway devil’s advocate is more fun. Note also that I may know a little about these things (a very little) – last time I spoke to Charles Hendry (he was shadow energy spokeman then) he nicked all my best lines to use in his own address 5 minutes later.

The entre global banking system is unstable since there are massive currency dependencies between countries and between banks. A country’s boarders pretty much have no bearing on these interdependencies. What is more, it is not just about loans going bad, but derivatives. We have not seen these in the press for quite a while, but there is far more that is creating this instability than just a few small European countries going belly up.

The UK is no longer viable – the government is spending far more each year than it takes in in the form of taxes.

So although we could see the collapse of the Euro, it would no doubt take Sterling with it.

And don’t forget that with fiat currencies, they have no intrinsic value – money nowadays is basically debt, and central banks create far less new money than commercial banks which can lend out the same deposit many times over.