Just read a BBC Sport piece on the chances of Cav winning. Basically they thought his chances were lowish because the GB team isn’t large enough to control the breakaways, and that Olympic history suggests that it tends to be GC type riders who win. It never comes down to a bunch sprint.

Why not then sacrifice Froome in a breakaway? That will get the peleton thinking.

Mr Miller won in a breakaway.

Why not then sacrifice Froome in a breakaway? That will get the peleton thinking.

Froome? in a breakaway? hmmmkay.

GC type riders who win

Like his team mates? I think they could combine quite well.

Mr Miller won in a breakaway.

Which Miller, and what did he win?

If you mean Millar in the tour, the Olympic RR is not a stage in the tour.

would say Cav is a marked man, small teams mean control is difficult.

Look for a classics/rouleur rider, Cancellara, Sanchez, Gilbert, etc. not a pure sprinter such as Cav or Greipel.

Mind you i have a suspicion it may be Sagan. Seems to have won everything else he has tried to this year.

small teams mean control is difficult.

True but Germany are banking on a sprint for Greipl so that’s 10 riders working for a sprint in effect.

Let’s see bunch sprint, who’d reall bet against Cav break away Millars been there done it so chances are good, hit the afterburners and blow the race apart wigg and froome would be v hard to beat, think the GB team has a really nice balance

Olympic history suggests that it tends to be GC type riders who win

It does not – Ulrich aside
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Olympic_medalists_in_cycling_(men)#Road_race.2C_individual

If it is a sprint I think Cav will win it if he is there
I think between them the team have the power and speed to do it

The unknown is luck

Wont be just Cav that wants a sprint as others note

Trade in your old gold for a world champion?

True but Germany are banking on a sprint for Greipl so that’s 10 riders working for a sprint in effect.

Good point. If they’re prepared to work together with GB then it might just come down to a sprint. So was letting Greipel win those TdF stages a long term tactic to make them think it worth bringing Cav to the finish?

Olympic history suggests that it tends to be GC type riders who win. It never comes down to a bunch sprint.

I don’t agree. I reckon history suggests that it tends to be the type of riders who win World Championships or one day Classics.

I’m pretty sure that Cav’s included in those categories 😉

Cav’s also been training for more MSR type sprints than classic bunch sprints – eg sprints from a group of riders who have whittled out many of the pure sprinters.

Just been watching an interview with Millar – has already spoken to German captain (on his pro team) about GB & Germany working together to keep it all together for a Cav/Greipl sprint. He also reckons US might help out too to keep Farrar in it.

His thoughts seem to be basically GB/US/Germany vs Italy/Belgium/Spain breaks.

Interesting interview and another insight into Brailsford’s approach (or maybe just Millar’s mindset) – Millar began talking about Game Theory at one point and not sure how many other pros in any sport would be trying to get their heads around that.

slainte 😯 rob

I have no doubt that all eventualities have been covered and Team GB will either quash any breaks or have a contingency plan to put someone else in a position to take gold if it doesn’t end in a bunch sprint down the Mall (which is what I’m hoping for as that would be EPIC!).

tom boonen with a broken rib.

As you say, they’ll definitely have a plan for if Cav gets dropped/crashes/etc.

I wonder if it’s for Wiggo to TT 40k to the finish line? 🙂

indeed. in my eyes i had hoped we’d be looking at a hard man’s race.

boonen (still out tho i think)
cancellara (still a bit injured)
sagan??? – new hero on the block
gilbert? – maybe need more hills towards end.

frankly, and not to GB bash, it will be a worse spectacle if these kinda lads are out of the game and GB/DE close everything down to only race out the last 500m.

Interesting point aracer. Wasn’t until the end of the TdF we really saw Cav’s proper sprint form. Might have been circumstance/luck/crashes/etc. but wouldn’t put it past Brailsford to be playing a longer game.

slainte ❓ rob

boonen (still out tho i think)

boonen rides

team belgian hardman ftw.

Will the Aussies ride for Matty Goss? that’s another 4 very very strong riders setting it up for the sprint

Personally I reckon it will mirror the world’s, with everyone knowing what the GB plan is but pretty much unable to do anything about it. Keep it all fairly closed down until after the last time up Box Hill then with 40km to go stick Wiggins and Froome on the front at full TT gas and take it from there. Only question for me is who leads Cav out (don’t know very much about Stannard) unless Bradley has still got enough in his legs to wind things up from longer out?

Only disappointing thing is I won’t be watching it live as I’ll be at Lord’s watching the Archery. Will have to try and avoid results until I get home Saturday night to iPlayer it.

slainte ❓ rob

I reckon you could add the aussies to the list of sprinting teams. Goss for a podium spot.

Edit. Klunk beat me to the line by a spoke’s breadth.

depends on whether Goss wants silver I assume 😉

wouldn’t put it past Brailsford to be playing a longer game.

It did occur to me as a serious thought, but I was being mischievous – really can’t see that deep a strategy being played. Though you have to admit it hasn’t done Cav’s chances any harm that Greipel did win those stages.

😆

Or bronze for that matter, junky.

can you imagine the look on Cav’s face, “Look Mark I’d like you to lose a few of these sprints on purpose”

stannard has previous in leadouts – maybe not for cav but ill bet on him doing a better job than anyone else on this forum – even if they were allowed an engine to do it !

“but I was being mischievous – really can’t see that deep a strategy being played”

read any of the brailsford elites biogs – brailsford plays long games.

everyone knowing what the GB plan is but pretty much unable to do anything about it.

Though as mentioned, the big difference is in the team size – far, far easier to execute such a plan with a 9 man team. As discussed above, they’re going to have to look to get some help from others.

Only question for me is who leads Cav out (don’t know very much about Stannard)

My understanding is that’s what Stannard’s there for – same play as on the Champs Elysees with Brad winding it up from further out and Stannard finishing off. Though I could be totally wrong.

read any of the brailsford elites biogs – brailsford plays long games.

Yes – but getting Cav to crash in order to give away a TdF stage win?

If that had really been the case, I don’t think that Cav played it very well on his penultimate win.

If it comes to a sprint It’ll be mayhem, just how Cav likes it.

on the test event did they use the full width of the mall for the finish ?

The Aussies might want a sprint too. It certainly will be interesting.

Sagan is in really impressive form he is definitely in with a chance, but who is going to want to work with him in a break?

Is Thor taking part?

My understanding is that’s what Stannard’s there for – same play as on the Champs Elysees with Brad winding it up from further out and Stannard finishing off. Though I could be totally wrong.

You often are but not this time 😉

IIRC cav wanted him

Sagan is in really impressive form he is definitely in with a chance, but who is going to want to work with him in a break?

Luis Leon Sanchez?

or maybe Realman?

I don’t agree. I reckon history suggests that it tends to be the type of riders who win World Championships or one day Classics.

I’m pretty sure that Cav’s included in those categories

This +1

Fantasy race though:

Breakway on lap one of box hill containing Froome and any other GC style riders, Froome dishes out the pain untill they’re all dropped and back in the Pelaton and spent. Wiggo and Millar do a well co-ordinated breakway over the last lap of Box Hill and TT’it upto Froome all three get to the last km and crash, the nation dispairs. Ian Stannard leads out Cav from a kilometer who then sprints so hard his rear tyre explodes over the line.

or maybe Realman?

CHuckles 😆

can his tyre burst into flames rather than explode and as it burns it leaves embers in the colours of the olympice rings?

I’d love to see Cav win but my instinct is still for a classics style rider. Boonen springs to mind, maybe Gilbert or Cancellara if he is going for the road race not the TT. I’d love to see Millar have a go from a break but as team captain I guess he needs to stay in the pelaton.