It’s been voted for, but will a Brexit actually go ahead?

The EU has said no negotiations until Article 50 (A50) is invoked. This seems to put the UK in the position where it has to jump, then ask how far down is the landing and how soft is it?

It’s been stated by an EU trade official that negotiation on this cannot start until the UK has formally left. Apparently because in the 2 years after Article 50, the UK is in the EU and therefore can’t negotiate a trade deal with the EU, due to EU laws…. but as the UK is a large trading partner with the rest of the EU this doesn’t make much sense. It would be in the benefit for all for parallel negotiations.

Many EU leaders have said that access to the free-market without free movement of people, labour, goods and services won’t be allowed…. but is access to the free-market actually needed?

The only thing the UK has definite control of is when A50 is invoked. Holding off on this might soften EU positions but it’s also going to prolong uncertainty in the UK. Holding off too long could make the EU believe it’s not going to happen, stances harden again.
Other less tangible leverage is the UK needs to be doing well for the rest of the EU to continue doing well.

I’m trying to get my head around what seems like an impossible task, on the face of it. How to balance effects on the economy with what can be got in the exit deal.

Whoever is PM is going to produce a strategy for Brexit, however anything on that looks like it will nothing more than a wish list. We’ll be in the same position as pre-referendum, not actually knowing what ‘Leave’ is going to be.

I suppose a manifesto is nothing but a wish list. However if you say you’re going to cut tax you can at least base that on a budget for the coming year.

What is going to the the substance behind any plans for Brexit?

I put “will it actually happen?” because as it was a non-binding referendum, it could be opposed. If the government was committed with no choice, then a lot of what is above would be moot. However as there is a way back it just seems to add to the uncertainty.

yep

Nope.

Maybe

Dunno.

A balanced debate so far 😀

52% vs 48% is not enough of a majority for a clear mandate, plus Tory party donors (which include businesses, banks and farmers) will be going absolutely ape-shit right now at the prospect of loss of trade and subsidy. A fundraiser for any local Tory group south of the Midlands is going to be a somewhat sparse affair right now.

Legally, the referendum carries about as much weight as the petition to name a ship ‘Boaty McBoatface’, any moral argument to observe the referendum result is tarnished by the Leave campaign’s stunning backtrack on key pledges less than 24 hours after the vote.

The Lords are predominantly pro-EU, so I believe. If a new PM enacts Article 50 then there may well be challenges from across both Houses, not to mention private legal challenges from businesses.

[ninja edit] This is based on feedback from a couple of armchair experts, my local MP and some reading between lines. Your actual mileage (kilometerage?) may vary. I’m off tomorrow to London to wave placards and shout a lot.

Gove has promised to do it. May said she’d do it. So seems quite likely, if they are telling the truth.

Can they be forced to put it to the commons?

If there is a GE then it seems likely a Tory candidate would promise to pull the plug to poach the large numbers of Labour voters who want out. Even if most of them have changed their minds, it seems likely they would have enough left over to swing the vote.

Same is true for individual Tory MPs – they might pledge to vote for Brexit in the commons to win seats.

We WILL be leaving the EU.

It will cost us in every possible way… wages, pensions, jobs, debt… you name it.

But it will happen. The Conservatives have to make it happen after the referendum vote, or their next GE will be a disaster. We all now have to suffer to keep their party in one piece, and in power. Suck it up and feel the pain.

Hopefully not.

The referendum was an undemocratic farce and we shouldn’t stand by its result.

Whatevs….

in a few years the following will be in place….

A) Britain will be paying the same amount into EU coffers, minus the rebate, as the price for access to the european market
B) The free movement of people, and thus immigration will remain unchanged, as the price for access to the european market
C) We will still have to accept all EU rules, regulations and ‘red tape’, as the price for access to the european market
D) We will have no say whasoever in EU decision making any more.

All in all, a complete and utter monumental cluster****!

I’d bet money on Article 50 not being implemented, Here’s my reason why

Can they be forced to put it to the commons?

No

Gove has promised to do it. May said she’d do it. So seems quite likely, if they are telling the truth.

I’m wondering what do all 5 Tory candidates see that they can do to take this forward? What are they reading between the lines? Or are they just hell bent power monkeys (probably yes, regardless)

The Conservatives have to make it happen after the referendum vote, or their next GE will be a disaster

Not necessarily – the opposition cannot muster a full Shadow Cabinet during the biggest constitutional crisis since the war. Also, notice how quickly the pre vote pro-leave media changed it’s tune the following Monday morning.

The advisory referendum vote was inconclusive at best. The leave campaigners seem to distancing themselves rather than stepping up. Politicians should now be brave and make some tough decisions on what is for the best rather than marching on but I suspect they will just carry on as anything else will likely be career ending and history has shown they generally tend to put themselves first

Moves afoot to stop it;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/second-eu-referendum-pull-us-out-of-fire-make-happen?CMP=fb_gu

Worth a letter to your local MP I’d have said

mefty >>

Can they be forced to put it to the commons?

No[/quote]

As I understand it the invocation of Article 50 and repeal of the 1972 EC Act will have to be approved by a commons vote. What do you know that is different?

As I understand it the invocation of Article 50 and repeal of the 1972 EC Act will have to be approved by a commons vote. What do you know that is different?

That ex government lawyers say that is a creative but incorrect argument and it can be done under PM’s prerogative.

Worth a letter to your local MP I’d have said

My MP is a rabidly anti-EU, foreigner hating, hang ’em and flog ’em, homophobic racist. Receiving letters asking him to help stop Brexit would doubtless have him laughing liken a Bond Villain 😥

Has the bloody mess that has resulted from our leave vote dampened the Outers on the continent?

if only there were a dedicated thread for this sort of thing.

me me me me me me me.

Pulls up chair, opens huge box of popcorn ready for long wait.

If it doesn’t, where does that leave democracy?

Don’t be fooled into thinking that all leave voters voted that way because of anything Gove or Boris or twatface Farage said…

My MP is a rabidly anti-EU, foreigner hating, hang ’em and flog ’em, homophobic racist.

Let me guess, The RT Hon Sir William Cash MP?

No – refuse to believe we will go through with it and collectively step on our dicks in such epic fashion. Especially as there’s so much monied interest involved, as mentioned.

Referenda are for rubber stamping constitutional matters where opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of the outcome. Not as a policy instrument for deciding 50/50s – that is the path of idiocracy.

Legally seems to me there is plenty of scope to not pull the trigger of the Art50 gun that’s pointing at our foot (imho)

Morally – irrespective of the quality of campaign, the lies told by both sides, and the buyer’s remorse the day after, the vote itself was properly conducted and counted and therefore democratically, there’s an obligation in my eyes to make it happen unless something materially changes substantially that justifies a second referendum.

I guess the question is what place morals?

Idle thought – i wonder how many of the people shouting about morals have ever wriggled out of a parking fine or speeding points over a technicality when morally they know they overstayed and deserve what they got?

If it doesn’t, where does that leave democracy?

Where does it leave democracy if 47 million people (population minus those who voted to leave) are taken out of the EU, with no chance of future repeal?

Democracy is the ability to change something if you’re not happy with it. We won’t be able to change the exit from the EU.

mefty >> That ex government lawyers say that is a creative but incorrect argument and it can be done under PM’s prerogative.

Is that the same ex government lawyer(s) who says:

Just because, on my analysis, the Prime Minister can trigger Article 50 without reference to Parliament, it does not follow that that would be a wise or sensible thing to do.

https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2016/06/30/brexit-on-why-as-a-matter-of-law-triggering-article-50-does-not-require-parliament-to-legislate/

I would imagine the PM would want to invoke A50 with the backing of Parliament, regardless of legal processes

Gove has promised to do it. May said she’d do it. So seems quite likely, if they are telling the truth.

I don’t trust a word any of these idiots say. They’ll say whatever it takes to achieve whatever hidden goal they have. It’s what happened throughout the Leave campaign.

Maybe the more the public are convinced the May/Gove want to leave, the more the public will believe them when the come back and say (whilst making closed fists, and pointing with their thumbs):

“Look. Let me absolutely clear about this. We really really want to leave, honest, but now is not the right time. We need to improve our economy so we can bargain from a stronger position. We will leave, but when the time is right for the UK, not because the EU want to kick us out as punishment” … or some such nonsense.

“We really really want to leave, honest, but now is not the right time, we need to improve our economy so we can bargain from a stronger position. We will leave, but when the time is right for the UK, not because the EU want to kick us out as punishment” … or some such nonsense.

Exactly this, because at this point whomever ends up in the PM’s seat will take the course of action that gives the best chance of remaining in power after the next election. Lets not be fooled into thinking this has anything to do with what the public wants.

This seems to put the UK in the position where it has to jump, then ask how far down is the landing and how soft is it?

It’s been stated by an EU trade official that negotiation on this cannot start until the UK has formally left. Apparently because in the 2 years after Article 50, the UK is in the EU and therefore can’t negotiate a trade deal with the EU, due to EU laws….

That’s some catch, that catch 50

If it doesn’t, where does that leave democracy?

Look – democracy is a tool for governing a country. Hammers are good tools for knocking in nails, but that doesn’t make it a good thing if I go round smashing every window in sight.

In other words – it can be mis-used. Pretty clear that this is a blatant mis-use of a democratic tool for political gain. Yes, people are unhappy, and people want their problems solved. No way is this the solution. It’s bonkers.

[comic digression]

whilst making closed fists, and pointing with their thumbs

I think this is the result of a Commons drinking game that has got out of hand. No pointing, left handed drinking only, no mentioning of the word ‘drink’. I wonder who the thumb master is…

[/comic digression]

Is that the same ex government lawyer(s) who says

No it is Carl Gardner, see here. The reason I give more weight to his view that the many academics who have come up with arguments is that he has been a day-to-day practitioner advising government on these matters in a senior capacity.

I think it will happen but we will likely join the EEA. Which will annoy the 48% because we left the EU proper and will annoy the 52% because we didn’t return to the age of steam trains and spitfires. So basically everyone will be unhappy, it’s the British way.

Where does it leave democracy if 47 million people (population minus those who voted to leave) are taken out of the EU, with no chance of future repeal?

Democracy is the ability to change something if you’re not happy with it. We won’t be able to change the exit from the EU.

Well quite frankly, the people who didn’t bother their backside voting can take what they’re given. You sound like you’re in favour of democracy, but only when the result is favourable to you.

binners – Member
Whatevs….

in a few years the following will be in place….

A) Britain will be paying the same amount into EU coffers, minus the rebate, as the price for access to the european market
B) The free movement of people, and thus immigration will remain unchanged, as the price for access to the european market
C) We will still have to accept all EU rules, regulations and ‘red tape’, as the price for access to the european market
D) We will have no say whasoever in EU decision making any more.

All in all, a complete and utter monumental cluster****!

My political koweledge is slim to **** all, but I really hope we don’t go though with it, I expect binners is spot on though 🙁

Someone posted this on one of the other threads yesterday, explains a couple of things.

We gain a new cliché – instead of “turkeys voting for Christmas” we now have “Brits voting for Brexit”.

Oops double post