Have you ever seen those videos of newly discovered Amazon tribes throwing spears at passing helicopters? That’s us that is.

Apologies if this reference to the scientific community’s current best practice is too overconfident and can’t be taken seriously.

Ah, sorry, I didn’t realise there was unanimity in the scientific community. Well, if that’s what they all think….

But NB, I’m not saying that we shouldn’t entertain the idea of life elsewhere. What got my goat was the ridiculous level of certainty expressed that there must be alien life expressed by a few here.

What got my goat was the ridiculous level of certainty expressed that there must be alien life expressed by a few here.

Nothing is certain. But it is statistically “very very likely”.

Winning the lottery is quite unlikely, but somewhat less so if you buy 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 tickets (estimated number of stars in the universe).

The odds of arriving at the chemical conditions that created life here are either so infinitesimally small that this is the only planet in the entire universe where it has ever happened. Or they are not as small in which case the huge numbers of stars and planets dictate that life is everywhere.

I go for option 2. I reckon it’s all over the place however intelligent communicating life or life with interstellar travel options probably not.

The odds of arriving at the chemical conditions that created life here are either so infinitesimally small that this is the only planet in the entire universe where it has ever happened. Or they are not as small in which case the huge numbers of stars and planets dictate that life is everywhere.

Orrrrrr.. God did it and ran away.

(Though I suspect Occam says this is unlikely).

Winning the lottery is quite unlikely, but somewhat less so if you buy 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 tickets (estimated number of stars in the universe).

Another terrible analogy.

The difference is that someone always will win the lottery.

The difference is that someone always will win the lottery

They’re wasting their time with this “rollover” caper, then.

rightplacerighttime don’t forget to mention evolution is made up rubbish, you’ll get a few more pages that way 😉

The difference is that someone always will win the lottery.

Yes. Sometimes even multiple planets people win it – despite the very long odds. See what I’m getting at?

Undoubtedly life exists elsewhere in the universe. The point we’ve missed is that it has taken three billion years of evolution on Earth for a lifeform able to send radio waves to other worlds which has been achieved within the last fifty.

The chances of us communicating with a lifeform at a similar technological level to us is frighteningly small. Then there’s the oft quoted maxim from Clarke – “Technology from a very advanced civilization will be indistinguishable from magic”. It’s entirely feasible that any civilization advanced enough to observe us would have an ethical issue with making contact.

Anyway, the biggest question here is that assuming we encounter an advanced civilization within our lifetimes there are important questions we’d need to ask them. Firstly, do they ride bicycles off road for pleasure. Secondly, what tyres do they recommend and thirdly, would they opt for a single pivot or a Horst link bike?

rightplacerighttime don’t forget to mention evolution is made up rubbish

I’m assuming rightplacerighttime is not a religious type – as he doesn’t believe in aliens and God is the ultimate ET.

Yes. Sometimes even multiple planets people win it – despite the very long odds. See what I’m getting at?

I see that you don’t understand probability.

We do know that someone will win the lottery – the probability of it happening is 1.

We do not know that there is alien life – the probability of us finding life is unknown – no matter how many potentially habitable planets there are, the probability will remain unknown unless we find it.

I’m assuming rightplacerighttime is not a religious type – as he doesn’t believe in aliens and God is the ultimate ET.

What a pathetic response.

I see that you don’t understand probability.

We do know that someone will win the lottery – the probability of it happening is 1.

ROFL. Yeah, I’m clearly struggling with probability. 😀

What a pathetic response.

? Why?

If you believe in (Christian) God then you believe in at least one alien, surely?

It is extremely unlikely that earth is the only plant with life on it.

And ‘life’ could mean many things, even things we don’t as yet understand fully.

Could that life be more intelligent than use? Of course, only the mistaken belief that man is the ultimate being would prevent anyone from thinking otherwise.

They look like Elfin

Why did I know that would pop up? 😐

It’s true, actually. I am here amongst you, to infect your minds and bring about your surrender through constant mental torture. You will eventually succumb. Resistance is useless. You will be assimilated.

Here’s a picture of me missus. She’s an annoying cah, I tell you. Nag nag nag always going on ‘Have you fixed the boiler? Have you taken the kids to the vet? Have you cleaned the Cube? Have you done this? Have you done that?’ Nag nag bloody nag all the bloody time does me ‘ead in… 🙄

Elfinsafety – Member

Have you cleaned the Cube?

She’s not Philip Schofield, is she??

If you believe in (Christian) God then you believe in at least one alien, surely?

I don’t believe in God.

You really are desperate.

I don’t believe in God.

Okay good. I did say that I assumed you didn’t but your arguments did have the slightly needy “We are special snowflakes” tone of a deity-botherer.

You really are desperate.

Only for your love.

I did say that I assumed you didn’t

But you thought the opposite though didn’t you? Otherwise you’d not have bothered with the nasty little dig?

It’s interesting that you seem to have complete faith in alien life but mock those who have faith in a creator. You see any paradox there?

I am convinced there are aliens – the drake equation proves it – the fermi paradox is interesting tho.

To me – with the (almost ??) infinite number of stars over an almost infinite time surely the conditions for life will be replicated many times over. Its very arrogant to assume something unique about or little dull planet.

I believe in the “zoo hypothesis” to the fermi paradox – that is that the aliens know we are here but are not revealing themselves to us yet while they watch us as in a zoo.

I read this a while back. Basically says same as above, simple life almost certainly exists elsewhere, but it needs very specific conditions to evolve into complex animal life.

Plenty of counter arguments though, mainly that this focuses solely on *our* view on life, and there could be loads of strange stuff we’ve never thought of.

this:

is the hubble deep field image – a photo, of a tiny patch of space.

every smudge of light is a galaxy, each galaxy has billions of stars. It’s a terrible waste of space if there’s nothing else out there to enjoy it.

Theres a synopsis on wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis

It’s interesting that you seem to have complete faith in alien life but mock those who have faith in a creator. You see any paradox there?

I know you’re not addressing me, but I don’tn see a paradox. I can see how someone could, but there seems to me to be a substantial gulf between “I think there’s probably other life in the universe because it’s a very very big place containing many planets similar to our own” and “the whole lot was made by a man with a beard”.

But you thought the opposite though didn’t you? Otherwise you’d not have bothered with the nasty little dig?

What “nasty little dig”? I’ve invoked God twice. Once to admit Him as a possibility and once to make a philosophical observation about his existence.

No nastiness intended.

For someone who complains about “combative positions” on forums you seem very keen to take one rather than have a reasoned debate.

It’s interesting that you seem to have complete faith in alien life but mock those who have faith in a creator. You see any paradox there?

I don’t think I’ve mocked anyone, but nope I see no paradox.

I don’t have “complete faith in alien life”, I just think that it seems extremely likely based on the balance of facts, research, extrapolations and theories that we currently have.

ahwiles: I like this one from Hubble:

The centre of Omega Centauri.

“My God, it’s full of stars” 😀

I don’t get rightplace’s argument

Are you saying that because we’ve not met them they don’t exist?

[video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buqtdpuZxvk[/video]

emsz – Member
I don’t get rightplace’s argument

Are you saying that because we’ve not met them they don’t exist?

Who said that?? 😀

Are you saying that because we’ve not met them they don’t exist?

No.

I’m saying that the degree of certainty that others are putting forward that there IS alien life is totally unwarranted.

It’s just not possible to say that it is “very very likely” or that “Undoubtedly life exists elsewhere in the universe” or “the drake equation proves it”

The problem is a bit like Schroedingers Cat, where alien life is the cat and the box is the universe – unless and until we actually see some real evidence we simply have no way of knowing. The number of stars and galaxies is totally irrelevant.

i dont get why rprt is being so argumentative and it is a very brave man who decides to take on grahams on probabilities or maths – he should see the threads you start to give an insight

I don’t know why you are getting so offended RPRT that he correctly pointed out you don’t believe in god [ he was adding weight to your view by saying you were not a nutty god bothering creationist [ he was of course being more polite than I am]. I cannot see why this upset you or you were offended tbh.

As for your lottery attempts /comprehension …see my first point on taking him on on maths /probabilities. Evn i know tha the probability being one means I buy one ticket I win the lottery – so every week everyone who enters wins the lottery then – It is not even won every week so the probability is not even 1 for the lottery being won that draw.

Like graham there are billion of starts and we are starting ot find planets in the correct zone. You need water for life and the rest of the chemicals exist anyway. It seems likely. Am I certain no. However I would be as surprised to find no life anywhere else in the universe as I would be to find god laughing and playing dice. It could happen but it seems unlikely

EDIT:

until we actually see some real evidence we simply have no way of knowing. The number of stars and galaxies is totally irrelevant.

Yes that correct they do not in anyway affect the odds. Its obvious when you think about it that the more stars and galaxies there are and planets there are that this does not increase the odds of their being life.
It like the lottery the more people who buy tickets with different numbers it does not actually increase the odds that someone will win it
You can have your view as a credible position if you wish but please stop the probabilities stuff , it is laughably poor. – its just wrong , we cant debate this.

the hubble deep field image – a photo, of a tiny patch of space.

… a really tiny patch… equivalent to 1mm square at arms length. Put me in with the “yes, obviously” side of the debate 🙂

The number of stars and galaxies is totally irrelevant.

…just like the number of tickets sold in the lottery is totally irrelevant to how many people win prizes.

Errr no, hang on… it isn’t

So Graham,

you’ve moved from:

I can’t see how it could be possible that we are the only life in the entire universe.

to

I just think that it seems extremely likely based on the balance of facts, research, extrapolations and theories that we currently have.

I see I’m winning you round.

elliptic,

Do you really not understand the problem with the lottery analogy?

Are we back in the land of aeroplanes on conveyors?

I see I’m winning you round.

don’t get your hopes up.

No one, in the history of the internet, has ever changed their mind due to a well reasoned argument being put forward on a forum.

and not from a abad one from someone who argues about probablilities whilst getting each point wrong

understand the problem with the lottery analogy

yes the more people who buy different tickets the more chance there is that someone wins..it like the number of tickets/stars/planets/ changes the odds of a win/life or something 😯

I don’t think anyone is saying there’s *certainly* life. I read G’s position as “it seems that it’s probable”

have I got that right?

Evn i know tha the probability being one means I buy one ticket I win the lottery – so every week everyone who enters wins the lottery then – It is not even won every week so the probability is not even 1 for the lottery being won that draw.

Oh dear.

With the lottery, money goes into a pot.

Numbers are drawn.

Eventually someone wins.

The probability of someone winning at some point is 1, because people will keep playing until it is won.

Even in the worst circumstances, eventually all of the combinations of numbers will be covered and the lottery will be won.

We have looked at some of the universe and found no evidence of alien life so far.

Just because we keep searching does not mean we will find it, because it might not be there.

No matter how big it is, or how long we search, if it is not there, we won’t find it.

Do you see why the situations are not analogous now?

yes you have emsz

We do know that someone will win the lottery – the probability of it happening is 1.

The probability of someone winning at some point is 1

you have moved the goal posts now – given an infintie lotteries of course even if only one ticket is sold it is cetain it will be won – interesting given an infintie number of stars and planets the odds of life are not 1 though. WHY?
I would much rather get back OT so
Could you explain why the number of stars and galaxies dont alter the odds?
TA