@scaredypants
the probable reason for poor sales of new bikes is that customers just don’t want / need new bikes, and are buying upgrades for existing bikes (i.e. new wheels or dropper post).
modern bikes are damn good, and don’t need replacing every season!
There are too many shops selling the same stock to the same pool of customers; its often been said in the bike industry that we are just selling different bikes to the same group of enthusiasts, there was an increase in this group as former golfers turned to sportive cycling, but there is not a massive driver
the real ‘boom’ in bicycle sales will not be from the next innovation (i.e. gravel bikes – again, sold to same enthusiasts) but when our obsession with sports bicycles becomes second to the needs of regular people wanting sensible bicycles for transport.
this is taking time, as new infrastructure is built to support safer cycling (removing the fear factor for non enthusiasts) you could see a big increase in transport bike sales
if you visit European countries, you will find most bike shops sell regular city bikes, baskets, locks, lights rather than “sports bicycles” and lycra race gear